5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Rams 30–26, but the Rams win 93% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Bobby Okereke), 15 yards, wiping out the play (Panthers at Browns), worth 33 points of win probability.

7 upsets, 3 of them deserved. Biggest: the Commanders as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Raiders (+1.4 wins). Unluckiest: the Texans (−1.2).

Every game of Week 3, replayed · Broncos 30, Rams 26: how it happened

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Saints beat the Ravens 24–17, but the Ravens win 74% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: C. Santos had a 23-yard field goal blocked (Vikings at Bears), worth 25 points of win probability.

5 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Browns as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Vikings (+1.0 wins). Unluckiest: the Chargers (−0.8).

Every game of Week 2, replayed · Saints 24, Ravens 17: how it happened

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Giants beat the Cowboys 28–20, but the Cowboys win 85% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: Defensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards, wiping out the play (Packers at Vikings), worth 38 points of win probability.

4 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Cardinals as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Giants (+0.8 wins). Unluckiest: the Cowboys (−0.8).

Every game of Week 1, replayed · Giants 28, Cowboys 20: how it happened

The winner was outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Patriots 29–13, but the Patriots win 68% of the replays.

No upsets: every betting favorite won.

Every game of Super Bowl, replayed · Seahawks 29, Patriots 13: how it happened

1 of 2 winners was outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27, but the Rams win 65% of the replays.

No upsets: every betting favorite won.

Every game of Conference championships, replayed · Seahawks 31, Rams 27: how it happened

2 of 4 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Rams beat the Bears 20–17, but the Bears win 66% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: K. Shakir dropped a catchable pass (Bills at Broncos), worth 34 points of win probability.

No upsets: every betting favorite won.

Every game of Divisional round, replayed · Rams 20, Bears 17: how it happened

1 of 6 winners was outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Bears beat the Packers 31–27, but the Packers win 52% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: B. McManus missed a 44-yard field goal (Packers at Bears), worth 17 points of win probability.

3 upsets, 1 of them deserved. Biggest: the 49ers as 33% underdogs.

Every game of Wild Card, replayed · Bears 31, Packers 27: how it happened

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Browns beat the Bengals 20–18, but the Bengals win 98% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: T. Loop missed a 44-yard field goal (Ravens at Steelers), worth 56 points of win probability.

6 upsets, 1 of them deserved. Biggest: the Browns as 24% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+4.0 wins). Unluckiest: the Chiefs (−3.9).

Every game of Week 18, replayed · Browns 20, Bengals 18: how it happened

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Bills 13–12, but the Bills win 88% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: L. Burden dropped a catchable pass (Bears at 49ers), worth 25 points of win probability.

7 upsets, 3 of them deserved. Biggest: the Falcons as 29% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+4.6 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−4.1).

Every game of Week 17, replayed · Eagles 13, Bills 12: how it happened

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Rams 38–37, but the Rams win 83% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play (Steelers at Lions), worth 45 points of win probability.

6 upsets, 3 of them deserved. Biggest: the Steelers as 29% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+3.7 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−4.0).

Every game of Week 16, replayed · Seahawks 38, Rams 37: how it happened

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Packers 34–26, but the Packers win 92% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: J. Myers made a 56-yard field goal (Colts at Seahawks), worth 24 points of win probability.

6 upsets, 1 of them deserved. Biggest: the Falcons as 33% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Broncos (+3.5 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−3.5).

Every game of Week 15, replayed · Broncos 34, Packers 26: how it happened

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Texans beat the Chiefs 20–10, but the Chiefs win 79% of the replays.

7 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Saints as 29% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+3.4 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−3.5).

Every game of Week 14, replayed · Texans 20, Chiefs 10: how it happened

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Buccaneers beat the Cardinals 20–17, but the Cardinals win 93% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: D. Sills dropped a catchable pass (Falcons at Jets), worth 33 points of win probability.

7 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Panthers as 23% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+3.9 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−3.3).

Every game of Week 13, replayed · Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 17: how it happened

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Bears beat the Steelers 31–28, but the Steelers win 69% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: J. Bates made a 59-yard field goal (Giants at Lions), worth 16 points of win probability.

4 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Texans as 34% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+4.1 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−3.2).

Every game of Week 12, replayed · Bears 31, Steelers 28: how it happened

2 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Lions 16–9, but the Lions win 81% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: M. Gay missed a 56-yard field goal (Commanders at Dolphins), worth 35 points of win probability.

4 upsets, 3 of them deserved. Biggest: the Panthers as 37% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+4.2 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−2.5).

Every game of Week 11, replayed · Eagles 16, Lions 9: how it happened

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Raiders 10–7, but the Raiders win 55% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: D. Mooney dropped a catchable pass (Falcons at Colts), worth 26 points of win probability.

6 upsets, 3 of them deserved. Biggest: the Dolphins as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+3.4 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−2.5).

Every game of Week 10, replayed · Broncos 10, Raiders 7: how it happened

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Raiders 30–29, but the Raiders win 77% of the replays.

6 upsets, 4 of them deserved. Biggest: the Panthers as 18% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.9 wins). Unluckiest: the Raiders (−1.9).

Every game of Week 9, replayed · Jaguars 30, Raiders 29: how it happened

1 of 13 winners was outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Texans beat the 49ers 26–15, but the 49ers win 52% of the replays.

2 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Dolphins as 30% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.9 wins). Unluckiest: the Jets (−1.9).

Every game of Week 8, replayed · Texans 26, 49ers 15: how it happened

0 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day.

3 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Bengals as 34% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.7 wins). Unluckiest: the Jets (−2.2).

Every game of Week 7, replayed

2 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Bears beat the Commanders 25–24, but the Commanders win 65% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: A. St. Brown dropped a catchable pass (Lions at Chiefs), worth 19 points of win probability.

4 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Giants as 30% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.4 wins). Unluckiest: the Jets (−2.1).

Every game of Week 6, replayed · Bears 25, Commanders 24: how it happened

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the 49ers beat the Rams 26–23, but the Rams win 74% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: the Rams were stopped on 4th & 1 (49ers at Rams), worth 75 points of win probability.

9 upsets, 4 of them deserved. Biggest: the 49ers as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.5 wins). Unluckiest: the Jets (−2.0).

Every game of Week 5, replayed · 49ers 26, Rams 23: how it happened

5 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Bears beat the Raiders 25–24, but the Raiders win 82% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: D. Carlson had a 54-yard field goal blocked (Bears at Raiders), worth 40 points of win probability.

5 upsets, 1 of them deserved. Biggest: the Giants as 33% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.7 wins). Unluckiest: the Jets (−1.9).

Every game of Week 4, replayed · Bears 25, Raiders 24: how it happened

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Rams 33–26, but the Rams win 86% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: J. Karty had a 44-yard field goal blocked (Rams at Eagles), worth 63 points of win probability.

4 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Browns as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+2.1 wins). Unluckiest: the Giants (−1.3).

Every game of Week 3, replayed · Eagles 33, Rams 26: how it happened

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Chiefs 20–17, but the Chiefs win 90% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: B. Aubrey made a 64-yard field goal (Giants at Cowboys), worth 28 points of win probability.

5 upsets, 4 of them deserved. Biggest: the Seahawks as 40% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Eagles (+1.2 wins). Unluckiest: the Chiefs (−1.1).

Every game of Week 2, replayed · Eagles 20, Chiefs 17: how it happened

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Jets 34–32, but the Jets win 93% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: A. Szmyt missed a 36-yard field goal (Bengals at Browns), worth 29 points of win probability.

3 upsets, 2 of them deserved. Biggest: the Chargers as 41% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Steelers (+0.9 wins). Unluckiest: the Jets (−0.9).

Every game of Week 1, replayed · Steelers 34, Jets 32: how it happened