Buffalo Bills: every game, adjusted for luck · Luck Adjusted https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/teams/buffalo-bills Every Buffalo Bills game replayed 4,000 times: who deserved to win, and the luck that decided it. en-us W 36–10 vs Ravens, Week 8 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/ravens-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/ravens-at-bills Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Ravens 36–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 33–30 at Raiders, Week 6 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/bills-at-raiders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/bills-at-raiders Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Raiders 33–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +17.

The full replay

]]> W 37–34 at Rams, Week 5 2026: had the bounces https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-5/bills-at-rams https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-5/bills-at-rams Tue, 13 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Rams 37–34, but the replays lean toward the Rams: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Bills: +72.

The game turned on a luck play: H. Mevis had a 48-yard field goal blocked (OT, 4:16 left).

The full replay

]]> L 26–29 vs Patriots, Week 4 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/patriots-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/patriots-at-bills Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bills 29–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −23.

The full replay

]]> W 24–16 vs Chargers, Week 3 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/chargers-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/chargers-at-bills Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Chargers 24–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +30.

The full replay

]]> W 41–31 vs Lions, Week 2 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/lions-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/lions-at-bills Fri, 18 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Lions 41–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +3.

The full replay

]]> W 36–31 at Texans, Week 1 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/bills-at-texans https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/bills-at-texans Mon, 14 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Texans 36–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +13.

The game turned on a luck play: the Bills fumbled and recovered it themselves (Q4, 3:13 left).

The full replay

]]> L 30–33 at Broncos, Divisional round 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/divisional/bills-at-broncos https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/divisional/bills-at-broncos Sun, 18 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Broncos beat the Bills 33–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −53.

The game turned on a luck play: K. Shakir dropped a catchable pass (Q4, 0:19 left).

The full replay

]]> W 27–24 at Jaguars, Wild Card 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/wild-card/bills-at-jaguars https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/wild-card/bills-at-jaguars Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Jaguars 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +40.

The full replay

]]> W 35–8 vs Jets, Week 18 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/jets-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/jets-at-bills Mon, 05 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Jets 35–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: 0.

The full replay

]]> L 12–13 vs Eagles, Week 17 2025: lost one the replays favored https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/eagles-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/eagles-at-bills Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Bills 13–12, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −88.

The full replay

]]> W 23–20 at Browns, Week 16 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/bills-at-browns https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/bills-at-browns Mon, 22 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Browns 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +3.

The full replay

]]> W 35–31 at Patriots, Week 15 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/bills-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/bills-at-patriots Mon, 15 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Patriots 35–31, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +32.

The full replay

]]> W 39–34 vs Bengals, Week 14 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-14/bengals-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-14/bengals-at-bills Mon, 08 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Bengals 39–34, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +41.

The full replay

]]> W 26–7 at Steelers, Week 13 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/bills-at-steelers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/bills-at-steelers Mon, 01 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Steelers 26–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +8.

The full replay

]]> L 19–23 at Texans, Week 12 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-12/bills-at-texans https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-12/bills-at-texans Fri, 21 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Texans beat the Bills 23–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −46.

The full replay

]]> W 44–32 vs Buccaneers, Week 11 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/buccaneers-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/buccaneers-at-bills Mon, 17 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Buccaneers 44–32, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +37.

The full replay

]]> L 13–30 at Dolphins, Week 10 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-10/bills-at-dolphins https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-10/bills-at-dolphins Mon, 10 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Dolphins beat the Bills 30–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −42.

The full replay

]]> W 28–21 vs Chiefs, Week 9 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/chiefs-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/chiefs-at-bills Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Chiefs 28–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +14.

The full replay

]]> W 40–9 at Panthers, Week 8 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/bills-at-panthers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/bills-at-panthers Mon, 27 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Panthers 40–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +1.

The full replay

]]> L 14–24 at Falcons, Week 6 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/bills-at-falcons https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/bills-at-falcons Tue, 14 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Falcons beat the Bills 24–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −59.

The full replay

]]> L 20–23 vs Patriots, Week 5 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/patriots-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/patriots-at-bills Mon, 06 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bills 23–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −46.

The full replay

]]> W 31–19 vs Saints, Week 4 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/saints-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/saints-at-bills Mon, 29 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Saints 31–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +9.

The full replay

]]> W 31–21 vs Dolphins, Week 3 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/dolphins-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/dolphins-at-bills Fri, 19 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Dolphins 31–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +11.

The full replay

]]> W 30–10 at Jets, Week 2 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/bills-at-jets https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/bills-at-jets Mon, 15 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Jets 30–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 41–40 vs Ravens, Week 1 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/ravens-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/ravens-at-bills Mon, 08 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Ravens 41–40, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +51.

The full replay

]]> L 29–32 at Chiefs, AFC Championship 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/conference-championships/bills-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/conference-championships/bills-at-chiefs Mon, 27 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Bills 32–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: −7.

The full replay

]]> W 27–25 vs Ravens, Divisional round 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/divisional/ravens-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/divisional/ravens-at-bills Mon, 20 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Ravens 27–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +34.

The full replay

]]> W 31–7 vs Broncos, Wild Card 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/wild-card/broncos-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/wild-card/broncos-at-bills Mon, 13 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Broncos 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +4.

The full replay

]]> L 16–23 at Patriots, Week 18 2024: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/bills-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/bills-at-patriots Mon, 06 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bills 23–16, but the replays lean toward the Bills: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Bills: −73.

The full replay

]]> W 40–14 vs Jets, Week 17 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/jets-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/jets-at-bills Mon, 30 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Jets 40–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +4.

The full replay

]]> W 24–21 vs Patriots, Week 16 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/patriots-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/patriots-at-bills Mon, 23 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Patriots 24–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +36.

The full replay

]]> W 48–42 at Lions, Week 15 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/bills-at-lions https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/bills-at-lions Mon, 16 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Lions 48–42, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +13.

The full replay

]]> L 42–44 at Rams, Week 14 2024: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-14/bills-at-rams https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-14/bills-at-rams Mon, 09 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Rams beat the Bills 44–42, but the replays lean toward the Bills: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Bills: −66.

The full replay

]]> W 35–10 vs 49ers, Week 13 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/49ers-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/49ers-at-bills Mon, 02 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the 49ers 35–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +3.

The full replay

]]> W 30–21 vs Chiefs, Week 11 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/chiefs-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/chiefs-at-bills Mon, 18 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Chiefs 30–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +47.

The full replay

]]> W 30–20 at Colts, Week 10 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/bills-at-colts https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/bills-at-colts Mon, 11 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Colts 30–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +9.

The full replay

]]> W 30–27 vs Dolphins, Week 9 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/dolphins-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/dolphins-at-bills Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Dolphins 30–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +22.

The full replay

]]> W 31–10 at Seahawks, Week 8 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/bills-at-seahawks https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/bills-at-seahawks Mon, 28 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Seahawks 31–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +3.

The full replay

]]> W 34–10 vs Titans, Week 7 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-7/titans-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-7/titans-at-bills Mon, 21 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Titans 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Bills: +1.

The full replay

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