Kansas City Chiefs: every game, adjusted for luck · Luck Adjusted https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/teams/kansas-city-chiefs Every Kansas City Chiefs game replayed 4,000 times: who deserved to win, and the luck that decided it. en-us W 35–12 vs Jets, Week 9 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-9/jets-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-9/jets-at-chiefs Mon, 09 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Jets 35–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +13.

The full replay

]]> L 24–28 at Broncos, Week 8 2026: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/chiefs-at-broncos https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/chiefs-at-broncos Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Broncos beat the Chiefs 28–24, but the replays lean toward the Chiefs: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −76.

The game turned on a luck play: H. Butker missed a 54-yard field goal (Q4, 2:36 left).

The full replay

]]> L 3–20 at Seahawks, Week 7 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-7/chiefs-at-seahawks https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-7/chiefs-at-seahawks Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Seahawks beat the Chiefs 20–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −14.

The full replay

]]> W 22–6 vs Chargers, Week 6 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/chargers-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/chargers-at-chiefs Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Chargers 22–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 30–27 at Raiders, Week 4 2026: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/chiefs-at-raiders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/chiefs-at-raiders Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +50.

The full replay

]]> W 24–10 at Dolphins, Week 3 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/chiefs-at-dolphins https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/chiefs-at-dolphins Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 33–30 vs Colts, Week 2 2026: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/colts-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/colts-at-chiefs Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Colts 33–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +47.

The full replay

]]> W 31–10 vs Broncos, Week 1 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/broncos-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/broncos-at-chiefs Tue, 15 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Broncos 31–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +14.

The full replay

]]> L 12–14 at Raiders, Week 18 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/chiefs-at-raiders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/chiefs-at-raiders Mon, 05 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Raiders beat the Chiefs 14–12, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −46.

The game turned on a luck play: D. Carlson made a 60-yard field goal (Q4, 0:13 left).

The full replay

]]> L 13–20 vs Broncos, Week 17 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/broncos-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/broncos-at-chiefs Fri, 26 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Broncos beat the Chiefs 20–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −41.

The full replay

]]> L 9–26 at Titans, Week 16 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/chiefs-at-titans https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/chiefs-at-titans Mon, 22 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Titans beat the Chiefs 26–9, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Titans win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −41.

The full replay

]]> L 13–16 vs Chargers, Week 15 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/chargers-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/chargers-at-chiefs Mon, 15 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chargers beat the Chiefs 16–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −48.

The full replay

]]> L 10–20 vs Texans, Week 14 2025: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-14/texans-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-14/texans-at-chiefs Mon, 08 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Texans beat the Chiefs 20–10, but the replays lean toward the Chiefs: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −79.

The full replay

]]> L 28–31 at Cowboys, Week 13 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/chiefs-at-cowboys https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/chiefs-at-cowboys Fri, 28 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Cowboys beat the Chiefs 31–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −59.

The full replay

]]> W 23–20 vs Colts, Week 12 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-12/colts-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-12/colts-at-chiefs Mon, 24 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Colts 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +14.

The full replay

]]> L 19–22 at Broncos, Week 11 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/chiefs-at-broncos https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/chiefs-at-broncos Mon, 17 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Broncos beat the Chiefs 22–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −56.

The full replay

]]> L 21–28 at Bills, Week 9 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/chiefs-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/chiefs-at-bills Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Chiefs 28–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −14.

The full replay

]]> W 28–7 vs Commanders, Week 8 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/commanders-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/commanders-at-chiefs Tue, 28 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Commanders 28–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +35.

The full replay

]]> W 31–0 vs Raiders, Week 7 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-7/raiders-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-7/raiders-at-chiefs Mon, 20 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 30–17 vs Lions, Week 6 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/lions-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/lions-at-chiefs Mon, 13 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Lions 30–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +32.

The game turned on a luck play: A. St. Brown dropped a catchable pass (Q2, 2:46 left).

The full replay

]]> L 28–31 at Jaguars, Week 5 2025: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/chiefs-at-jaguars https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/chiefs-at-jaguars Tue, 07 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31–28, but the replays lean toward the Chiefs: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −69.

The game turned on a luck play: Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play (Q4, 0:38 left).

The full replay

]]> W 37–20 vs Ravens, Week 4 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/ravens-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/ravens-at-chiefs Mon, 29 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Ravens 37–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +50.

The full replay

]]> W 22–9 at Giants, Week 3 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/chiefs-at-giants https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/chiefs-at-giants Mon, 22 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Giants 22–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +35.

The full replay

]]> L 17–20 vs Eagles, Week 2 2025: lost one the replays favored https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/eagles-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/eagles-at-chiefs Mon, 15 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Chiefs 20–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −90.

The full replay

]]> L 21–27 at Chargers, Week 1 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/chiefs-vs-chargers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/chiefs-vs-chargers Sat, 06 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chargers beat the Chiefs 27–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −15.

The full replay

]]> L 22–40 at Eagles, Super Bowl 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/super-bowl/chiefs-vs-eagles https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/super-bowl/chiefs-vs-eagles Mon, 10 Feb 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Chiefs 40–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −15.

The full replay

]]> W 32–29 vs Bills, AFC Championship 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/conference-championships/bills-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/conference-championships/bills-at-chiefs Mon, 27 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Bills 32–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +7.

The full replay

]]> W 23–14 vs Texans, Divisional round 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/divisional/texans-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/divisional/texans-at-chiefs Sun, 19 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Texans 23–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +54.

The full replay

]]> L 0–38 at Broncos, Week 18 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/chiefs-at-broncos https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/chiefs-at-broncos Mon, 06 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Broncos beat the Chiefs 38–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −3.

The full replay

]]> W 29–10 at Steelers, Week 17 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/chiefs-at-steelers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/chiefs-at-steelers Thu, 26 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Steelers 29–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +10.

The full replay

]]> W 27–19 vs Texans, Week 16 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/texans-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/texans-at-chiefs Sun, 22 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Texans 27–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +12.

The full replay

]]> W 21–7 at Browns, Week 15 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/chiefs-at-browns https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/chiefs-at-browns Mon, 16 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Browns 21–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 19–17 vs Chargers, Week 14 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-14/chargers-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-14/chargers-at-chiefs Mon, 09 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Chargers 19–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +20.

The full replay

]]> W 19–17 vs Raiders, Week 13 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/raiders-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/raiders-at-chiefs Sat, 30 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Raiders 19–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +48.

The game turned on a luck play: D. Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal (Q4, 2:21 left).

The full replay

]]> W 30–27 at Panthers, Week 12 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-12/chiefs-at-panthers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-12/chiefs-at-panthers Mon, 25 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Panthers 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +5.

The full replay

]]> L 21–30 at Bills, Week 11 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/chiefs-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/chiefs-at-bills Mon, 18 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Chiefs 30–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: −47.

The full replay

]]> W 16–14 vs Broncos, Week 10 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/broncos-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/broncos-at-chiefs Mon, 11 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Broncos 16–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +19.

The game turned on a luck play: W. Lutz had a 35-yard field goal blocked (Q4, 0:01 left).

The full replay

]]> W 30–24 vs Buccaneers, Week 9 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/buccaneers-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/buccaneers-at-chiefs Tue, 05 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 30–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +46.

The full replay

]]> W 27–20 at Raiders, Week 8 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/chiefs-at-raiders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/chiefs-at-raiders Mon, 28 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Raiders 27–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +13.

The full replay

]]> W 28–18 at 49ers, Week 7 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-7/chiefs-at-49ers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-7/chiefs-at-49ers Mon, 21 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the 49ers 28–18, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Chiefs: +29.

The full replay

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