New England Patriots: every game, adjusted for luck · Luck Adjusted https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/teams/new-england-patriots Every New England Patriots game replayed 4,000 times: who deserved to win, and the luck that decided it. en-us L 27–45 vs Packers, Week 9 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-9/packers-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-9/packers-at-patriots Mon, 09 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Packers beat the Patriots 45–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −35.

The full replay

]]> W 24–19 at Dolphins, Week 8 2026: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/patriots-at-dolphins https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/patriots-at-dolphins Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Dolphins 24–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +58.

The full replay

]]> L 24–30 at Bears, Week 7 2026: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-7/patriots-at-bears https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-7/patriots-at-bears Fri, 23 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Bears beat the Patriots 30–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bears win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −60.

The full replay

]]> W 26–19 vs Jets, Week 6 2026: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/jets-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/jets-at-patriots Mon, 19 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Jets 26–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +45.

The full replay

]]> W 45–17 vs Raiders, Week 5 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-5/raiders-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-5/raiders-at-patriots Mon, 12 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Raiders 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 29–26 at Bills, Week 4 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/patriots-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/patriots-at-bills Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bills 29–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +23.

The full replay

]]> L 6–35 at Jaguars, Week 3 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/patriots-at-jaguars https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/patriots-at-jaguars Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Jaguars beat the Patriots 35–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −7.

The full replay

]]> W 20–3 vs Steelers, Week 2 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/steelers-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/steelers-at-patriots Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Steelers 20–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +10.

The full replay

]]> L 10–13 at Seahawks, Week 1 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/patriots-at-seahawks https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/patriots-at-seahawks Thu, 10 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Seahawks beat the Patriots 13–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −23.

The full replay

]]> L 13–29 vs Seahawks, Super Bowl 2025: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/super-bowl/seahawks-vs-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/super-bowl/seahawks-vs-patriots Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29–13, but the replays lean toward the Patriots: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Patriots: −68.

The full replay

]]> W 10–7 at Broncos, AFC Championship 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/conference-championships/patriots-at-broncos https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/conference-championships/patriots-at-broncos Mon, 26 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Broncos 10–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +16.

The full replay

]]> W 28–16 vs Texans, Divisional round 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/divisional/texans-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/divisional/texans-at-patriots Mon, 19 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Texans 28–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +9.

The full replay

]]> W 16–3 vs Chargers, Wild Card 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/wild-card/chargers-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/wild-card/chargers-at-patriots Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Chargers 16–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +8.

The full replay

]]> W 38–10 vs Dolphins, Week 18 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/dolphins-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/dolphins-at-patriots Mon, 05 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Dolphins 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: 0.

The full replay

]]> W 42–10 at Jets, Week 17 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/patriots-at-jets https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/patriots-at-jets Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Jets 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: 0.

The full replay

]]> W 28–24 at Ravens, Week 16 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/patriots-at-ravens https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/patriots-at-ravens Mon, 22 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Ravens 28–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +50.

The full replay

]]> L 31–35 vs Bills, Week 15 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/bills-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/bills-at-patriots Mon, 15 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Patriots 35–31, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −32.

The full replay

]]> W 33–15 vs Giants, Week 13 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/giants-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/giants-at-patriots Tue, 02 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Giants 33–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +7.

The full replay

]]> W 26–20 at Bengals, Week 12 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-12/patriots-at-bengals https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-12/patriots-at-bengals Mon, 24 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bengals 26–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +18.

The full replay

]]> W 27–14 vs Jets, Week 11 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/jets-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/jets-at-patriots Fri, 14 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Jets 27–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +6.

The full replay

]]> W 28–23 at Buccaneers, Week 10 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-10/patriots-at-buccaneers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-10/patriots-at-buccaneers Mon, 10 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Buccaneers 28–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +29.

The full replay

]]> W 24–23 vs Falcons, Week 9 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/falcons-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/falcons-at-patriots Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Falcons 24–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +14.

The full replay

]]> W 32–13 vs Browns, Week 8 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/browns-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/browns-at-patriots Mon, 27 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Browns 32–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +1.

The full replay

]]> W 31–13 at Titans, Week 7 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-7/patriots-at-titans https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-7/patriots-at-titans Mon, 20 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Titans 31–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +3.

The full replay

]]> W 25–19 at Saints, Week 6 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/patriots-at-saints https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/patriots-at-saints Mon, 13 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Saints 25–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +15.

The full replay

]]> W 23–20 at Bills, Week 5 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/patriots-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/patriots-at-bills Mon, 06 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bills 23–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +46.

The full replay

]]> W 42–13 vs Panthers, Week 4 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/panthers-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/panthers-at-patriots Mon, 29 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Panthers 42–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +26.

The full replay

]]> L 14–21 vs Steelers, Week 3 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/steelers-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/steelers-at-patriots Mon, 22 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Steelers beat the Patriots 21–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −38.

The full replay

]]> W 33–27 at Dolphins, Week 2 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/patriots-at-dolphins https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/patriots-at-dolphins Mon, 15 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Dolphins 33–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +56.

The full replay

]]> L 13–20 vs Raiders, Week 1 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/raiders-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/raiders-at-patriots Mon, 08 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Raiders beat the Patriots 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −10.

The full replay

]]> W 23–16 vs Bills, Week 18 2024: had the bounces https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/bills-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/bills-at-patriots Mon, 06 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bills 23–16, but the replays lean toward the Bills: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Patriots: +73.

The full replay

]]> L 7–40 vs Chargers, Week 17 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/chargers-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/chargers-at-patriots Sun, 29 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Chargers beat the Patriots 40–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −4.

The full replay

]]> L 21–24 at Bills, Week 16 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/patriots-at-bills https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/patriots-at-bills Mon, 23 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Bills beat the Patriots 24–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −36.

The full replay

]]> L 17–30 at Cardinals, Week 15 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/patriots-at-cardinals https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/patriots-at-cardinals Mon, 16 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Cardinals beat the Patriots 30–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −13.

The full replay

]]> L 24–25 vs Colts, Week 13 2024: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/colts-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/colts-at-patriots Mon, 02 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Colts beat the Patriots 25–24, but the replays lean toward the Patriots: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Patriots: −70.

The full replay

]]> L 15–34 at Dolphins, Week 12 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-12/patriots-at-dolphins https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-12/patriots-at-dolphins Mon, 25 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Dolphins beat the Patriots 34–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −11.

The full replay

]]> L 22–28 vs Rams, Week 11 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/rams-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/rams-at-patriots Mon, 18 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Rams beat the Patriots 28–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −4.

The full replay

]]> W 19–3 at Bears, Week 10 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/patriots-at-bears https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/patriots-at-bears Mon, 11 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Bears 19–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +42.

The full replay

]]> L 17–20 at Titans, Week 9 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/patriots-at-titans https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/patriots-at-titans Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Titans beat the Patriots 20–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: −4.

The full replay

]]> W 25–22 vs Jets, Week 8 2024: won against the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/jets-at-patriots https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/jets-at-patriots Mon, 28 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Patriots beat the Jets 25–22, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Patriots: +86.

The full replay

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