Washington Commanders: every game, adjusted for luck · Luck Adjusted https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/teams/washington-commanders Every Washington Commanders game replayed 4,000 times: who deserved to win, and the luck that decided it. en-us L 13–20 vs Rams, Week 9 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-9/rams-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-9/rams-at-commanders Mon, 09 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Rams beat the Commanders 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −16.

The full replay

]]> W 27–10 vs Eagles, Week 8 2026: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/eagles-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-8/eagles-at-commanders Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Eagles 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +7.

The full replay

]]> L 17–23 at 49ers, Week 6 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/commanders-at-49ers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-6/commanders-at-49ers Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The 49ers beat the Commanders 23–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −12.

The full replay

]]> T 27–27 vs Giants, Week 5 2026 https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-5/giants-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-5/giants-at-commanders Mon, 12 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders and the Giants tied 27–27. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −4.

The full replay

]]> L 13–30 vs Colts, Week 4 2026: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/colts-vs-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-4/colts-vs-commanders Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Colts beat the Commanders 30–13, but the replays lean toward the Commanders: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Commanders: −74.

The full replay

]]> W 33–31 vs Seahawks, Week 3 2026: had the bounces https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/seahawks-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-3/seahawks-at-commanders Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Seahawks 33–31, but the replays lean toward the Seahawks: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Commanders: +74.

The full replay

]]> L 20–37 at Cowboys, Week 2 2026: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/commanders-at-cowboys https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-2/commanders-at-cowboys Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Cowboys beat the Commanders 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −18.

The full replay

]]> L 22–24 at Eagles, Week 1 2026: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/commanders-at-eagles https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2026/week-1/commanders-at-eagles Mon, 14 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Commanders 24–22, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −59.

The full replay

]]> W 24–17 at Eagles, Week 18 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/commanders-at-eagles https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-18/commanders-at-eagles Mon, 05 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Eagles 24–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 4 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +57.

The full replay

]]> L 23–30 vs Cowboys, Week 17 2025: lost one the replays favored https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/cowboys-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-17/cowboys-at-commanders Fri, 26 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Cowboys beat the Commanders 30–23, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −82.

The full replay

]]> L 18–29 vs Eagles, Week 16 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/eagles-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-16/eagles-at-commanders Sun, 21 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Commanders 29–18, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −24.

The full replay

]]> W 29–21 at Giants, Week 15 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/commanders-at-giants https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-15/commanders-at-giants Mon, 15 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Giants 29–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +42.

The full replay

]]> L 0–31 at Vikings, Week 14 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-14/commanders-at-vikings https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-14/commanders-at-vikings Mon, 08 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Vikings beat the Commanders 31–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −33.

The full replay

]]> L 26–27 vs Broncos, Week 13 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/broncos-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-13/broncos-at-commanders Mon, 01 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Broncos beat the Commanders 27–26, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −51.

The full replay

]]> L 13–16 at Dolphins, Week 11 2025: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/commanders-vs-dolphins https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-11/commanders-vs-dolphins Mon, 17 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Dolphins beat the Commanders 16–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −43.

The game turned on a luck play: M. Gay missed a 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:15 left).

The full replay

]]> L 22–44 vs Lions, Week 10 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-10/lions-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-10/lions-at-commanders Mon, 10 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Lions beat the Commanders 44–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −15.

The full replay

]]> L 14–38 vs Seahawks, Week 9 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/seahawks-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-9/seahawks-at-commanders Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Seahawks beat the Commanders 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −18.

The full replay

]]> L 7–28 at Chiefs, Week 8 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/commanders-at-chiefs https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-8/commanders-at-chiefs Tue, 28 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Chiefs beat the Commanders 28–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −35.

The full replay

]]> L 22–44 at Cowboys, Week 7 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-7/commanders-at-cowboys https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-7/commanders-at-cowboys Mon, 20 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Cowboys beat the Commanders 44–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −22.

The full replay

]]> L 24–25 vs Bears, Week 6 2025: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/bears-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-6/bears-at-commanders Tue, 14 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Bears beat the Commanders 25–24, but the replays lean toward the Commanders: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Commanders: −65.

The full replay

]]> W 27–10 at Chargers, Week 5 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/commanders-at-chargers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-5/commanders-at-chargers Mon, 06 Oct 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Chargers 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +10.

The full replay

]]> L 27–34 at Falcons, Week 4 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/commanders-at-falcons https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-4/commanders-at-falcons Mon, 29 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Falcons beat the Commanders 34–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −22.

The full replay

]]> W 41–24 vs Raiders, Week 3 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/raiders-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-3/raiders-at-commanders Mon, 22 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Raiders 41–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +10.

The full replay

]]> L 18–27 at Packers, Week 2 2025: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/commanders-at-packers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-2/commanders-at-packers Fri, 12 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Packers beat the Commanders 27–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −9.

The full replay

]]> W 21–6 vs Giants, Week 1 2025: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/giants-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2025/week-1/giants-at-commanders Mon, 08 Sep 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Giants 21–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +3.

The full replay

]]> L 23–55 at Eagles, NFC Championship 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/conference-championships/commanders-at-eagles https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/conference-championships/commanders-at-eagles Mon, 27 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Commanders 55–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −4.

The full replay

]]> W 45–31 at Lions, Divisional round 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/divisional/commanders-at-lions https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/divisional/commanders-at-lions Sun, 19 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Lions 45–31, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +23.

The full replay

]]> W 23–20 at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2024: had the bounces https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/wild-card/commanders-at-buccaneers https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/wild-card/commanders-at-buccaneers Mon, 13 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Buccaneers 23–20, but the replays lean toward the Buccaneers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Commanders: +67.

The full replay

]]> W 23–19 at Cowboys, Week 18 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/commanders-at-cowboys https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-18/commanders-at-cowboys Mon, 06 Jan 2025 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Cowboys 23–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +24.

The full replay

]]> W 30–24 vs Falcons, Week 17 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/falcons-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-17/falcons-at-commanders Mon, 30 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Falcons 30–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +17.

The game turned on a luck play: R. Patterson missed a 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02 left).

The full replay

]]> W 36–33 vs Eagles, Week 16 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/eagles-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-16/eagles-at-commanders Mon, 23 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Eagles 36–33, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +45.

The full replay

]]> W 20–19 at Saints, Week 15 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/commanders-at-saints https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-15/commanders-at-saints Mon, 16 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Saints 20–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +36.

The full replay

]]> W 42–19 vs Titans, Week 13 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/titans-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-13/titans-at-commanders Mon, 02 Dec 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Titans 42–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: 0.

The full replay

]]> L 26–34 vs Cowboys, Week 12 2024: unlucky https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-12/cowboys-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-12/cowboys-at-commanders Mon, 25 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Cowboys beat the Commanders 34–26, but the replays lean toward the Commanders: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Luck index for the Commanders: −66.

The full replay

]]> L 18–26 at Eagles, Week 11 2024: a coin flip https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/commanders-at-eagles https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-11/commanders-at-eagles Fri, 15 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Eagles beat the Commanders 26–18, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 6 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −44.

The full replay

]]> L 27–28 vs Steelers, Week 10 2024: lost one the replays favored https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/steelers-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-10/steelers-at-commanders Mon, 11 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Steelers beat the Commanders 28–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −95.

The full replay

]]> W 27–22 at Giants, Week 9 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/commanders-at-giants https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-9/commanders-at-giants Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Giants 27–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +7.

The full replay

]]> W 18–15 vs Bears, Week 8 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/bears-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-8/bears-at-commanders Mon, 28 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Bears 18–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +2.

The full replay

]]> W 40–7 vs Panthers, Week 7 2024: backed by the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-7/panthers-at-commanders https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-7/panthers-at-commanders Mon, 21 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Commanders beat the Panthers 40–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: +1.

The full replay

]]> L 23–30 at Ravens, Week 6 2024: behind in the replays https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-6/commanders-at-ravens https://luckadjusted.com/nfl/games/2024/week-6/commanders-at-ravens Mon, 14 Oct 2024 12:00:00 GMT The Ravens beat the Commanders 30–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Luck index for the Commanders: −21.

The full replay

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