About
Luck Adjusted tries to answer one question: how much of a result was the team, and how much was the bounces? It covers the NFL (every game since 2019), college football (every game with an FBS team), the NHL and soccer: the Premier League, La Liga, the Bundesliga, the World Cup and the Euros.
How
Under the hood, a Python engine turns each game’s play-by-play into replays and luck events. The site rebuilds itself when new games come in, usually the morning after. Every number, and every test we ran on it, is on the methodology pages for the NFL, college football, NHL and soccer.
Data
Play-by-play, schedules, closing lines, snap counts, rosters and injury reports come from nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Drops and interception-worthy throws come from FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0). College play-by-play with expected points, schedules and closing lines come from CollegeFootballData.com through cfbfastR and SportsDataverse, with team details and further lines from ESPN. NHL play-by-play comes from the NHL’s public feeds through fastRhockey and SportsDataverse, with our own expected goals. Soccer: scores and goals of the current seasons from openfootball (public domain) and, for the Bundesliga, OpenLigaDB (Open Database License); every shot, with expected goals, of past tournaments and the 2015-16 leagues from StatsBomb’s open data. The data on this site is shared under CC BY-SA 4.0: use it, credit it, share alike.
Team names and logos are trademarks of their teams, schools, conferences and leagues. They appear here only to identify teams. Luck Adjusted is not affiliated with the NFL, the NCAA, the NHL, FIFA, UEFA or any league, club, team, conference or school.
Privacy
No cookies, no ads, no accounts. The “adjust the assumptions” panels run in your browser; your settings live only in the page address. Everything we do with data.
Who
Luck Adjusted is made by Veste Software, part of A7-24 Aumann GmbH in Coburg, Germany. Imprint
Contact
Spot a number that looks wrong? Got a question, or want to use the data in a story? Write to info@veste-software.com.