About
Luck Adjusted replays every NFL game to separate what a team earned from what bounced its way. It answers one question, game after game: who really deserved to win?
How
A Python engine turns each game’s play-by-play into luck events and replays, and the site is rebuilt from its output every morning in season. Every number and every test behind it is on the methodology page.
Data
Play-by-play, schedules, closing lines, snap counts, rosters and injury reports come from nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Drops and interception-worthy throws come from FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0). The data on this site is shared under CC BY-SA 4.0: use it, credit it, share alike.
Team names and logos are trademarks of their teams and the NFL. They appear here only to identify teams. Luck Adjusted is not affiliated with the NFL or any team.
Privacy
This site sets no cookies and runs no analytics or ads. The “adjust the assumptions” panels run in your browser; your settings live only in the page address.