Every week of the season

The weekly luck report

When a week’s last game is in, one short report: how many winners were outplayed, the biggest heist, the play the week turned on, the upsets that were deserved, and the luckiest team so far.

The luck report, every week

One email when a week is done: who got lucky, who was robbed, the play each game turned on, and your team’s week if you pick one. Free, no ads, unsubscribe any time.

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The latest issue

September 29, 2026

Week 3, 2026: the Broncos stole one, and 4 more winners were outplayed

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day.

Biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Rams 30–26, but the Rams win 93% of the replays.

Turning point of the week: Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Bobby Okereke), 15 yards, wiping out the play (Panthers at Browns), worth 33 points of win probability.

7 upsets, 3 of them deserved. Biggest: the Commanders as 26% underdogs.

Luckiest team so far: the Raiders (+1.4 wins). Unluckiest: the Texans (−1.2).

Every game of Week 3, replayed