Premier League 2026-27 · after matchday 5
The Premier League, adjusted for luck.
Every match replayed 4,000 times from what both teams’ goals say: was the result lucky or expected, and the table in the points the goals earn, beside the points teams have.
Results in our source (openfootball) through Sep 20, 2026. Volunteers keep it up to date, so the latest matchdays can take a while to arrive.
Luckiest so far: Man City, +4.0 points against their goals. Unluckiest: Fulham, −3.2.
Matchday 5: the results the goals liked least
- Forest 0–1 Coventry
Coventry beat Forest 1–0, but the goals lean toward Forest: 5 wins in 10 to Coventry’s 2, 3 end level.
- Newcastle 2–1 Hull
Newcastle beat Hull 2–1, but the goals call it even: Newcastle win 4 of 10, Hull 3, 3 end level.
- Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool
Liverpool beat Bournemouth 1–0, but the goals call it even: Liverpool win 4 of 10, Bournemouth 3, 3 end level.
- Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa
Aston Villa beat Tottenham 3–2, and the goals lean Aston Villa’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Tottenham, 3 end level.
Matchday 11: our predictions
- Chelsea v Leeds
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
- Bournemouth v Forest
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
- Coventry v Crystal Palace
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
- Hull v Brighton
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
- Newcastle v Arsenal
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
- Tottenham v Ipswich
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
The table, in the points the goals earn
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Goal pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man City | 5 | +8 | 15 | 11.0 | +4.0 |
| 2▲1 |  Brighton | 5 | +11 | 10 | 10.5 | −0.5 |
| 3▲1 |  Brentford | 5 | +6 | 9 | 9.9 | −0.9 |
| 4▼2 |  Arsenal | 5 | +4 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 |
| 5 |  Leeds | 5 | +4 | 9 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
| 6▲1 |  Everton | 5 | +3 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 7▼1 |  Liverpool | 5 | +3 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 8 |  Hull | 5 | +2 | 8 | 8.2 | −0.2 |
| 9 |  Newcastle | 5 | 0 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 10▲2 |  Man United | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6.8 | −1.8 |
| 11▲2 |  Forest | 5 | −1 | 5 | 6.2 | −1.2 |
| 12▼2 |  Chelsea | 5 | −2 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 13▲4 |  Bournemouth | 5 | −2 | 3 | 5.6 | −2.6 |
| 14▲5 |  Fulham | 5 | −3 | 2 | 5.2 | −3.2 |
| 15▼4 |  Ipswich | 5 | −4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 16▼2 |  Sunderland | 5 | −4 | 4 | 4.9 | −0.9 |
| 17▼1 |  Aston Villa | 5 | −5 | 4 | 4.7 | −0.7 |
| 18▼3 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | −5 | 4 | 4.4 | −0.4 |
| 19▲1 |  Tottenham | 5 | −6 | 2 | 3.5 | −1.5 |
| 20▼2 |  Coventry | 5 | −9 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
Every matchday, 2026-27
- Matchday 5 Sep 18, 2026 · 10 matches · biggest steal: Forest 0–1 Coventry, 39% of replays
- Matchday 4 Sep 12, 2026 · 10 matches · biggest steal: Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich, 46% of replays
- Matchday 3 Sep 4, 2026 · 10 matches · biggest steal: Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace, 45% of replays
- Matchday 2 Aug 28, 2026 · 10 matches · biggest steal: Chelsea 4–3 Brighton, 32% of replays
- Matchday 1 Aug 21, 2026 · 10 matches · biggest steal: Ipswich 2–1 Sunderland, 47% of replays