luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 5 · Premier League 2026-27 · September 19, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa beat Tottenham 3–2, and the goals lean Aston Villa’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Tottenham, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Tottenham were expected to score 1.0 here and Aston Villa 1.3.

Full time

Goals
Tottenham Hotspur 2
Aston Villa 3

September 19, 2026

Our prediction before kickoff: Tottenham win 37%

Luck index +41 Aston Villa lucky · −41 Tottenham

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Tottenham win 3, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 4.

  1. 1 TOT 1 AVL 0
  2. 2 TOT 1 AVL 0
  3. 3 TOT 3 AVL 1
  4. 4 TOT 2 AVL 2
  5. 5 TOT 1 AVL 1
  6. 6 TOT 0 AVL 0
  7. 7 TOT 0 AVL 3
  8. 8 TOT 0 AVL 2
  9. 9 TOT 0 AVL 1
  10. 10 TOT 0 AVL 1

Our prediction before kickoff

We had it too close to call, 28% for a draw, Tottenham 37%, Aston Villa 35%. Aston Villa won, in a match we had too close to call. The final margin was 1.0 goal from ours; 33% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

The goals

Our source lists this match’s score but not who scored or when, so there is no timeline of it. The replay above needs only the score.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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