luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

The NHL, adjusted for luck.

The scoreboard tells you who won. It doesn’t tell you how much of that was a hot goalie, a post or a shootout. So we replay every NHL game 4,000 times from the shots both teams actually took, and count how often each side comes out on top. It’s a model, not a ruling. Everything that goes into it, and every test it passed or failed, is on the methodology page.

Week 1, 2026-27: 5 of 16 winners were behind in the replays

The games luck decided most, 16 of 39 replayed so far. The deserve-to-win meter: every game

The bar on each card shows how often the loser wins the replays. Fuller bar, more luck. An outline means the winner was behind in the replays.

Luckiest, 2025-26

  1. Bruins100 pts · PDO 1.017+18.9 pts
  2. Canadiens106 pts · PDO 1.017+18.2 pts
  3. Sabres109 pts · PDO 1.021+13.6 pts
  4. Sharks86 pts · PDO 0.998+13.2 pts
  5. Islanders91 pts · PDO 0.994+12.8 pts
  6. Wild104 pts · PDO 1.012+10.8 pts
  7. Stars112 pts · PDO 1.031+9.9 pts
  8. Ducks92 pts · PDO 0.981+8.5 pts
  9. Flyers98 pts · PDO 0.998+8.1 pts
  10. Predators86 pts · PDO 0.998+7.9 pts

Unluckiest, 2025-26

  1. Golden Knights95 pts · PDO 0.992−7.5 pts
  2. Jets82 pts · PDO 0.994−4.7 pts
  3. Kings90 pts · PDO 0.991−3.3 pts
  4. Canucks58 pts · PDO 0.976−3.0 pts
  5. Rangers77 pts · PDO 1.013−2.0 pts
  6. Mammoth92 pts · PDO 1.002−1.7 pts
  7. Panthers84 pts · PDO 0.986−1.3 pts
  8. Senators99 pts · PDO 0.993−0.7 pts
  9. Blue Jackets92 pts · PDO 0.997+0.9 pts
  10. Lightning106 pts · PDO 1.016+0.9 pts

All 32 teams: luck rankingsStandings, adjusted for luckExpected goals and PDOOne-goal games, overtime and shootoutsPower rankingsPredictionsEvery team

Every week of 2025-26

WeekDatesWinners behind in replaysBiggest steal
Stanley Cup Final Jun 3, 2026–Jun 15, 2026 3 of 6 Hurricanes 5–3 Golden Knights · won 43% of replays
Conference finals May 21, 2026–May 30, 2026 3 of 9 Golden Knights 4–2 Avalanche · won 28% of replays
Second round May 3, 2026–May 18, 2026 3 of 22 Canadiens 3–2 Sabres · won 36% of replays
First round Apr 18, 2026–May 3, 2026 16 of 45 Canadiens 2–1 Lightning · won 25% of replays
Week 28 Apr 13, 2026–Apr 16, 2026 9 of 31 Panthers 3–2 Rangers · won 25% of replays
Week 27 Apr 6, 2026–Apr 12, 2026 21 of 53 Canucks 4–3 Ducks · won 28% of replays
Week 26 Mar 30, 2026–Apr 5, 2026 18 of 56 Red Wings 4–2 Flyers · won 29% of replays
Week 25 Mar 23, 2026–Mar 29, 2026 22 of 54 Blackhawks 4–3 Islanders · won 19% of replays
Week 24 Mar 16, 2026–Mar 22, 2026 20 of 56 Predators 4–3 Jets · won 23% of replays
Week 23 Mar 9, 2026–Mar 15, 2026 24 of 56 Blackhawks 3–2 Mammoth · won 23% of replays
Week 22 Mar 2, 2026–Mar 8, 2026 26 of 55 Canadiens 4–3 Kings · won 23% of replays
Week 21 Feb 25, 2026–Mar 1, 2026 19 of 43 Red Wings 2–1 Senators · won 31% of replays
Week 18 Feb 2, 2026–Feb 5, 2026 14 of 34 Canadiens 5–1 Jets · won 25% of replays
Week 17 Jan 26, 2026–Feb 1, 2026 25 of 50 Wild 4–3 Blackhawks · won 26% of replays
Week 16 Jan 19, 2026–Jan 25, 2026 23 of 55 Ducks 2–1 Avalanche · won 17% of replays
Week 15 Jan 12, 2026–Jan 18, 2026 18 of 54 Islanders 1–0 Oilers · won 19% of replays
Week 14 Jan 5, 2026–Jan 11, 2026 21 of 54 Islanders 4–3 Wild · won 30% of replays
Week 13 Dec 29, 2025–Jan 4, 2026 32 of 56 Sharks 5–4 Ducks · won 21% of replays
Week 12 Dec 22, 2025–Dec 28, 2025 13 of 35 Kraken 3–1 Ducks · won 24% of replays
Week 11 Dec 15, 2025–Dec 21, 2025 18 of 57 Red Wings 3–2 Capitals · won 24% of replays
Week 10 Dec 8, 2025–Dec 14, 2025 23 of 53 Ducks 4–3 Penguins · won 17% of replays
Week 9 Dec 1, 2025–Dec 7, 2025 20 of 55 Blues 2–1 Senators · won 29% of replays
Week 8 Nov 24, 2025–Nov 30, 2025 29 of 53 Bruins 3–1 Islanders · won 27% of replays
Week 7 Nov 17, 2025–Nov 23, 2025 22 of 52 Kraken 3–2 Penguins · won 26% of replays
Week 6 Nov 10, 2025–Nov 16, 2025 20 of 49 Islanders 3–2 Devils · won 20% of replays
Week 5 Nov 3, 2025–Nov 9, 2025 26 of 53 Blackhawks 5–1 Red Wings · won 15% of replays
Week 4 Oct 27, 2025–Nov 2, 2025 19 of 51 Kings 4–3 Sharks · won 16% of replays
Week 3 Oct 20, 2025–Oct 26, 2025 28 of 55 Red Wings 6–4 Blues · won 26% of replays
Week 2 Oct 13, 2025–Oct 19, 2025 20 of 54 Oilers 2–0 Rangers · won 26% of replays
Week 1 Oct 7, 2025–Oct 12, 2025 15 of 38 Bruins 3–1 Capitals · won 27% of replays

The biggest steals of 2025-26

Games the winner almost never wins in the replays.

  1. Blackhawks 5, Red Wings 1 · Nov 9, 2025 · the Blackhawks win 15% of replays
  2. Kings 4, Sharks 3 · Oct 28, 2025 · the Kings win 16% of replays
  3. Ducks 4, Penguins 3 · Dec 9, 2025 · the Ducks win 17% of replays
  4. Ducks 2, Avalanche 1 · Jan 21, 2026 · the Ducks win 17% of replays
  5. Blackhawks 4, Islanders 3 · Mar 24, 2026 · the Blackhawks win 19% of replays

How it works

Every unblocked shot gets a chance of going in from where and how it was taken, the strength on the ice, and the shooter’s and goalie’s records: our own expected-goals model, fitted on four seasons of NHL play-by-play. To replay a game we draw each team’s attempts again at the rate it generated them in each game state, score each one at its chance, give each team the power plays its penalties gave, pull the goalie at the end, and play overtime and the shootout close to coin flips. 4,000 times.

How often a team wins those replays is roughly what its play was worth. Add up the points it takes from them and you have the points it deserved; the gap to the real standings is luck. It is PDO’s idea, shot by shot, and in our tests it predicts the rest of a season better than PDO does. Methodology and every test

Seasons

2026-272025-26