2026-27 regular season · October 25, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Predators, Oct 25, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Avalanche 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 15:59 left): Filip Forsberg scored on a snap shot from 33 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Predators.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 2 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Predators lucky · −35 Avalanche
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 4, Predators win 6.
- 1 COL 4 NSH 1
- 2 COL 4 NSH 2
- 3 COL 4 NSH 3
- 4 COL 2 NSH 1
- 5 COL 2 NSH 3
- 6 COL 1 NSH 2
- 7 COL 4 NSH 6
- 8 COL 1 NSH 4
- 9 COL 2 NSH 6
- 10 COL 2 NSH 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 0.7, 61% to win. The Predators won by 4, a result we gave 39%. The final margin was 4.7 goals from ours; 3% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Avalanche win | 61.3% |
| Predators win | 38.7% |
| Middle 50%: Avalanche by 3 to Predators by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Avalanche by 4 to Predators by 3 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Avalanche by 5 to Predators by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 21.8% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 18.1% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 15.2% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 12.1% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 8.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Oct 25, 12:45 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Avalanche win 35% of them, Predators 65%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 9.1% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 7.1% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 19.1% |
| Predators by 1 | 19.7% |
| Predators by 2 | 11.7% |
| Predators by 3+ | 33.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 35 | 2 | 2.12 | −0.12 |
 Predators | 48 | 6 | 2.95 | +3.05 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:23 | Hooking on the Avalanche (Parker Kelly): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 8:52 | Cross checking on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% COL |
| P2 16:15 | Interference on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% COL |
| P2 14:05 | Too many men on the ice on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NSH |
| P2 12:47 | Slashing on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% COL |
| P2 3:02 | Interference on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NSH |
| P2 1:25 | Hooking on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NSH |
| P3 18:37 | Hooking on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% COL |
| P3 17:43 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Nazem Kadri): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NSH |
| P3 11:12 | Slashing on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NSH |
| P3 10:32 | High sticking on the Avalanche (Logan O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:23 | Hooking on the Avalanche (Parker Kelly): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 15:59 | Filip Forsberg scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 14% chance | +14% NSH | – |
| 3 | P1 9:12 | Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% NSH | – |
| 4 | P1 8:52 | Cross checking on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% COL | – |
| 5 | P1 5:32 | Artturi Lehkonen’s wrist shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +2% NSH | – |
| 6 | P2 16:15 | Interference on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% COL | – |
| 7 | P2 14:05 | Too many men on the ice on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% NSH | – |
| 8 | P2 13:22 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance | +7% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 20% · Predators 80%
- Final margin
- Predators by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Predators by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 35% · Predators 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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