luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 NHL season · after week 1

NHL expected goals and PDO, 2026-27

The Penguins have the biggest share of the chances so far: 73.0% of the expected goals in their games. The highest PDO belongs to the Mammoth (1.188), the lowest to the Flames (0.853).

Regulation with both goalies in, every strength. Expected goals from our own model of every unblocked shot, with the shooter’s and goalie’s records. PDO: shooting percentage plus save percentage, on shots on goal. Regular season. How the model works

#TeamGPxGFxGAxG shareGFGAGoals above xGSh%Sv%PDO
1 Penguins 1 4.4 1.6 73.0% 7 0 +4.3 18.4% 1.000 1.184
2 Devils 1 3.5 1.4 71.5% 2 2 −2.1 4.9% 0.909 0.958
3 Mammoth 1 3.6 1.6 69.5% 6 0 +4.0 18.8% 1.000 1.188
4 Wild 1 3.3 2.0 62.8% 3 1 +0.7 10.0% 0.950 1.050
5 Oilers 2 7.2 4.6 61.2% 14 12 −0.6 20.3% 0.721 0.924
6 Kraken 1 3.6 2.4 60.0% 6 1 +3.8 18.8% 0.960 1.147
7 Golden Knights 1 3.3 2.3 58.5% 4 2 +1.1 11.1% 0.923 1.034
8 Panthers 2 5.6 4.5 55.3% 3 3 −1.1 6.7% 0.925 0.992
9 Hurricanes 1 2.0 1.7 54.1% 0 0 −0.3 0.0% 1.000 1.000
10 Sabres 1 2.4 2.1 53.6% 3 5 −2.3 11.5% 0.773 0.888
11 Maple Leafs 2 5.3 4.8 52.8% 4 4 −0.6 7.4% 0.922 0.996
12 Islanders 1 2.7 2.5 51.9% 1 2 −1.2 3.7% 0.923 0.960
13 Lightning 1 2.7 2.6 51.8% 1 4 −3.2 4.0% 0.833 0.873
14 Kings 1 2.9 2.8 50.8% 4 8 −4.1 12.9% 0.724 0.853
15 Rangers 2 5.0 5.1 49.4% 4 3 +1.1 8.3% 0.936 1.020
16 Bruins 1 2.4 2.4 49.3% 2 0 +2.1 9.1% 1.000 1.091
17 Avalanche 1 2.8 2.9 49.2% 8 4 +4.1 27.6% 0.871 1.147
18 Blue Jackets 1 2.1 2.4 46.4% 5 3 +2.3 22.7% 0.885 1.112
19 Canadiens 1 2.1 2.8 42.1% 3 2 +1.8 12.5% 0.929 1.054
20 Flames 1 2.4 3.6 40.0% 1 6 −3.8 4.0% 0.813 0.853
21 Sharks 1 2.5 3.9 39.0% 3 3 +1.4 11.5% 0.885 1.000
22 Canucks 2 4.6 7.2 38.8% 12 14 +0.6 27.9% 0.797 1.076
23 Predators 1 2.0 3.3 37.2% 1 3 −0.7 5.0% 0.900 0.950
24 Blackhawks 2 3.9 6.8 36.3% 2 10 −5.0 4.9% 0.853 0.902
25 Flyers 2 3.0 7.8 27.7% 2 9 −2.2 4.9% 0.886 0.935

Goals above xG: goals for minus expected, less goals against minus expected; positive is better finishing or goaltending than the chances were worth (some skill, mostly luck: see luck rankings). Empty-net goals and overtime aren’t counted here.

Questions

What are expected goals (xG) in hockey?

The chance that a shot goes in, from where and how it was taken: its distance and angle, the shot type, whether it was a rebound or off the rush, and the strength on the ice. Added up over a game or a season, it says how many goals a team’s chances were worth. Ours is fitted on every unblocked shot of four seasons and adjusted for the shooter’s and goalie’s records.

Which NHL team has the best PDO in 2026-27?

The Utah Mammoth so far, at 1.188 (shooting 18.8%, save percentage 1.000). The lowest: the Calgary Flames, 0.853. A PDO far from 1.000 rarely lasts.