Were the Lightning lucky in 2025-26?

About as lucky as the average team: +0.9 points against what their play was worth, the 10th-unluckiest of 32.

Where did the Lightning’ luck come from?

Goaltending +6.2 goals, Shooting +4.8 goals, Shootout +2.0 goals, Overtime +1.9 goals, Empty-net goals −2.2 goals.

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning went 50–26–6 (106 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 105.1 points. Luck added 0.9: the 10th-unluckiest of 32. PDO 1.016; 53.5% of the expected goals in their games.

Atlantic Division, 2025-26

#	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Without luck
1	Sabres	82	50–23–9	109	95.4	3rd
2	Lightning	82	50–26–6	106	105.1	1st
3	Canadiens	82	48–24–10	106	87.8	4th
4	Bruins	82	45–27–10	100	81.1	7th
5	Senators	82	44–27–11	99	99.7	2nd
6	Red Wings	82	41–31–10	92	84.8	6th
7	Panthers	82	40–38–4	84	85.3	5th
8	Maple Leafs	82	32–36–14	78	71.4	8th

Every division, adjusted for luck

Where the luck came from, 2025-26

Goaltending +6.2

Shooting +4.8

Shootout +2.0

Overtime +1.9

Empty-net goals −2.2

Goals of margin luck added (right) or cost (left) over the season, each kind at its fitted luck share; overtime and shootout wins count two.

Season by season

Season	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Luck
2026-27	0–1–0	0	0.2	−0.2
2025-26	50–26–6	106	105.1	+0.9

Luckiest wins

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Nov 22, 2025	@ Capitals	W 5–3	30%	+70
Dec 27, 2025	@ Panthers	W 4–2	31%	+69
Dec 28, 2025	vs Canadiens	W 5–4	35%	+65
Apr 4, 2026	vs Bruins	W 3–1	40%	+60
Nov 8, 2025	vs Capitals	W 3–2	40%	+60

Unluckiest losses

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Nov 16, 2025	vs Canucks	L 2–6	76%	−76
2025-26 first round, game 7	vs Canadiens	L 1–2	75%	−75
Jan 16, 2026	@ Blues	L 2–3	71%	−71
Dec 13, 2025	@ Islanders	L 2–3	70%	−70
Dec 18, 2025	vs Kings	L 1–2	70%	−70

Division rivals

Bruins · Sabres · Red Wings · Panthers · Canadiens · Senators · Maple Leafs

Every NHL team · 2025-26 luck rankings · How the luck is measured