NHL week 1, 2026-27 · September 29, 2026–October 4, 2026

The NHL deserve-to-win meter

Who deserved to win every NHL game of week 1, 2026-27: 5 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canucks beat the Oilers 6–5, a game the Oilers win 75% of the time. The surest winner: the Penguins, 80% of replays.

Every game is replayed 4,000 times from its own shots: each team’s unblocked attempts resampled by strength, each a goal at its chance (our expected goals, with the shooter’s and goalie’s records), the power plays its penalties gave, the pulled goalie at the end, overtime and the shootout as near coin flips. The meter is how often each team wins those replays: MoneyPuck’s Deserve To Win O’Meter made the idea famous; this one is built on our own expected-goals model and tested against what happened next. 16 of 39 games so far; the rest appear the morning after they’re played. How the replay works