luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 NHL season · Oct 5, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026

NHL week 2: who deserved to win

6 of 47 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Bruins beat the Mammoth 6–1 in a game they win 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 47 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bruins W 6–1 vs Mammoth Oct 8, 2026 27% +73
2 Predators W 5–2 @ Canadiens Oct 8, 2026 34% +66
3 Maple Leafs W 6–3 @ Avalanche Oct 10, 2026 35% +65
4 Blackhawks W 4–2 vs Blues Oct 6, 2026 38% +62
5 Sharks W 3–2 OT @ Blues Oct 8, 2026 39% +61
6 Jets W 3–2 vs Avalanche Oct 7, 2026 39% +61
7 Oilers W 5–2 @ Ducks Oct 7, 2026 43% +57
8 Senators W 4–1 @ Bruins Oct 5, 2026 43% +57
9 Stars W 4–0 @ Sabres Oct 8, 2026 44% +56
10 Kraken W 6–3 @ Red Wings Oct 9, 2026 46% +54
11 Senators W 2–1 vs Flyers Oct 8, 2026 46% +54
12 Jets W 3–2 @ Penguins Oct 5, 2026 46% +54
13 Avalanche W 7–3 @ Flames Oct 8, 2026 49% +51
14 Kraken W 5–3 @ Capitals Oct 11, 2026 49% +51
15 Wild W 4–1 @ Panthers Oct 10, 2026 49% +51
16 Penguins W 2–1 SO vs Stars Oct 10, 2026 50% +50
17 Lightning W 5–3 @ Islanders Oct 10, 2026 50% +50
18 Canadiens W 1–0 SO vs Red Wings Oct 10, 2026 51% +49
19 Ducks W 4–2 @ Flames Oct 10, 2026 51% +49
20 Ducks W 5–1 @ Jets Oct 9, 2026 53% +47
21 Maple Leafs W 5–4 OT vs Predators Oct 6, 2026 54% +46
22 Islanders W 4–1 vs Blackhawks Oct 8, 2026 57% +43
23 Capitals W 3–1 vs Rangers Oct 9, 2026 59% +41
24 Blues W 5–3 vs Blue Jackets Oct 10, 2026 60% +40
25 Golden Knights W 2–1 OT vs Kings Oct 10, 2026 63% +37
26 Panthers W 2–1 @ Kings Oct 6, 2026 63% +37
27 Lightning W 3–2 vs Wild Oct 8, 2026 64% +36
28 Senators W 3–2 SO vs Predators Oct 10, 2026 66% +34
29 Hurricanes W 5–2 @ Blackhawks Oct 10, 2026 66% +34
30 Golden Knights W 6–2 @ Kraken Oct 6, 2026 67% +33
31 Mammoth W 5–3 @ Devils Oct 6, 2026 67% +33
32 Capitals W 5–3 vs Penguins Oct 7, 2026 67% +33
33 Mammoth W 4–1 @ Sabres Oct 10, 2026 69% +31
34 Rangers W 5–2 vs Islanders Oct 6, 2026 69% +31
35 Red Wings W 5–3 vs Senators Oct 6, 2026 70% +30
36 Hurricanes W 6–4 @ Canadiens Oct 6, 2026 70% +30
37 Devils W 4–1 vs Canucks Oct 10, 2026 71% +29
38 Rangers W 6–2 vs Canucks Oct 11, 2026 71% +29
39 Hurricanes W 4–1 @ Flyers Oct 11, 2026 72% +28
40 Sabres W 3–2 OT vs Wild Oct 6, 2026 72% +28
41 Golden Knights W 4–3 SO vs Maple Leafs Oct 8, 2026 73% +27
42 Blue Jackets W 3–2 SO vs Penguins Oct 9, 2026 74% +26
43 Bruins W 5–1 vs Flyers Oct 10, 2026 77% +23
44 Lightning W 4–1 vs Flyers Oct 5, 2026 80% +20
45 Stars W 5–0 vs Sharks Oct 5, 2026 81% +19
46 Oilers W 3–1 @ Sharks Oct 10, 2026 81% +19
47 Hurricanes W 7–2 vs Canucks Oct 8, 2026 87% +13
48 Canucks L 2–7 @ Hurricanes Oct 8, 2026 13% −13
49 Sharks L 1–3 vs Oilers Oct 10, 2026 19% −19
50 Sharks L 0–5 @ Stars Oct 5, 2026 19% −19
51 Flyers L 1–4 @ Lightning Oct 5, 2026 20% −20
52 Flyers L 1–5 @ Bruins Oct 10, 2026 23% −23
53 Penguins L 2–3 SO @ Blue Jackets Oct 9, 2026 26% −26
54 Maple Leafs L 3–4 SO @ Golden Knights Oct 8, 2026 27% −27
55 Wild L 2–3 OT @ Sabres Oct 6, 2026 28% −28
56 Flyers L 1–4 vs Hurricanes Oct 11, 2026 28% −28
57 Canucks L 2–6 @ Rangers Oct 11, 2026 29% −29
58 Canucks L 1–4 @ Devils Oct 10, 2026 29% −29
59 Canadiens L 4–6 vs Hurricanes Oct 6, 2026 30% −30
60 Senators L 3–5 @ Red Wings Oct 6, 2026 30% −30
61 Islanders L 2–5 @ Rangers Oct 6, 2026 31% −31
62 Sabres L 1–4 vs Mammoth Oct 10, 2026 31% −31
63 Penguins L 3–5 @ Capitals Oct 7, 2026 33% −33
64 Devils L 3–5 vs Mammoth Oct 6, 2026 33% −33
65 Kraken L 2–6 vs Golden Knights Oct 6, 2026 33% −33
66 Blackhawks L 2–5 vs Hurricanes Oct 10, 2026 34% −34
67 Predators L 2–3 SO @ Senators Oct 10, 2026 34% −34
68 Wild L 2–3 @ Lightning Oct 8, 2026 36% −36
69 Kings L 1–2 vs Panthers Oct 6, 2026 37% −37
70 Kings L 1–2 OT @ Golden Knights Oct 10, 2026 37% −37
71 Blue Jackets L 3–5 @ Blues Oct 10, 2026 40% −40
72 Rangers L 1–3 @ Capitals Oct 9, 2026 41% −41
73 Blackhawks L 1–4 @ Islanders Oct 8, 2026 43% −43
74 Predators L 4–5 OT @ Maple Leafs Oct 6, 2026 46% −46
75 Jets L 1–5 vs Ducks Oct 9, 2026 47% −47
76 Flames L 2–4 vs Ducks Oct 10, 2026 49% −49
77 Red Wings L 0–1 SO @ Canadiens Oct 10, 2026 49% −49
78 Islanders L 3–5 vs Lightning Oct 10, 2026 50% −50
79 Stars L 1–2 SO @ Penguins Oct 10, 2026 50% −50
80 Panthers L 1–4 vs Wild Oct 10, 2026 51% −51
81 Capitals L 3–5 vs Kraken Oct 11, 2026 51% −51
82 Flames L 3–7 vs Avalanche Oct 8, 2026 51% −51
83 Penguins L 2–3 vs Jets Oct 5, 2026 54% −54
84 Flyers L 1–2 @ Senators Oct 8, 2026 54% −54
85 Red Wings L 3–6 vs Kraken Oct 9, 2026 54% −54
86 Sabres L 0–4 vs Stars Oct 8, 2026 56% −56
87 Bruins L 1–4 vs Senators Oct 5, 2026 57% −57
88 Ducks L 2–5 vs Oilers Oct 7, 2026 57% −57
89 Avalanche L 2–3 @ Jets Oct 7, 2026 61% −61
90 Blues L 2–3 OT vs Sharks Oct 8, 2026 61% −61
91 Blues L 2–4 @ Blackhawks Oct 6, 2026 62% −62
92 Avalanche L 3–6 vs Maple Leafs Oct 10, 2026 65% −65
93 Canadiens L 2–5 vs Predators Oct 8, 2026 66% −66
94 Mammoth L 1–6 @ Bruins Oct 8, 2026 73% −73