2026-27 regular season · October 8, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Mammoth at Bruins, Oct 8, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Mammoth 6–1, but the replays lean toward the Mammoth: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Bruins.
The biggest swing (P1, 9:54 left): Casey Mittelstadt scored on a wrist shot from 28 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 Utah Mammoth | 1 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Bruins very lucky · −73 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mammoth win 7, Bruins win 3.
- 1 UTA 9 BOS 2
- 2 UTA 5 BOS 0
- 3 UTA 4 BOS 0
- 4 UTA 7 BOS 4
- 5 UTA 5 BOS 2
- 6 UTA 6 BOS 4
- 7 UTA 3 BOS 2
- 8 UTA 3 BOS 4
- 9 UTA 2 BOS 3
- 10 UTA 2 BOS 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Mammoth by 0.2, 53% to win. The Bruins won by 5, a result we gave 47%. The final margin was 5.2 goals from ours; 2% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mammoth win | 52.7% |
| Bruins win | 47.3% |
| Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Bruins by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Bruins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Mammoth by 5 to Bruins by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 20.8% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 12.4% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 10.8% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 8, 1:43 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Mammoth win 73% of them, Bruins 27%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mammoth by 3+ | 47.4% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 10.5% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 15.2% |
| Bruins by 1 | 16.6% |
| Bruins by 2 | 5.2% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mammoth | 56 | 1 | 4.40 | −3.40 |
 Bruins | 29 | 6 | 2.05 | +3.95 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:20 | Slashing on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 5:44 | Interference on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 16:31 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% BOS |
| P2 14:51 | Tripping on the Bruins (JJ Peterka): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% UTA |
| P2 12:39 | Hooking on the Mammoth (Michael Carcone): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BOS |
| P2 11:35 | Interference on the Bruins (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% UTA |
| P2 8:10 | Hooking on the Bruins (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% UTA |
| P2 5:17 | High sticking on the Bruins (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% UTA |
| P2 1:45 | Slashing on the Bruins (Pavel Zacha): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% UTA |
| P3 3:47 | Interference goalkeeper on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% UTA |
| P3 2:00 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BOS |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:20 | Slashing on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% UTA | – |
| 2 | P1 11:40 | Daniil But’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +3% BOS | – |
| 3 | P1 11:39 | Michael Carcone’s snap shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +4% BOS | – |
| 4 | P1 9:54 | Casey Mittelstadt scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 5% chance | +16% BOS | – |
| 5 | P1 5:44 | Interference on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 6 | P1 5:38 | David Pastrnak scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 4% chance | +13% BOS | – |
| 7 | P1 4:09 | Mason Lohrei scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 5% chance | +8% BOS | – |
| 8 | P2 15:20 | David Pastrnak scored on a slap shot from 36 feetShooting · 10% chance | +3% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mammoth 54% · Bruins 46%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 5
- Luck in goals
- 5.5 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Mammoth 73% · Bruins 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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