Wild unlucky 3 
Oilers lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 30% of replays 2026-27 NHL season · Oct 19, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
NHL week 4: who deserved to win
7 of 48 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Oilers beat the Wild 4–3 (OT) in a game they win 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 48 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Wild unlucky 3 Oilers lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 30% of replays 
Sharks lucky 6 
Senators unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 30% of replays 
Kings lucky 5 
Capitals unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kings win 32% of replays Wild unlucky 1 
Flames lucky 2 Replays favor loser · Flames win 33% of replays 
Lightning unlucky 3 
Avalanche lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Avalanche win 36% of replays Lightning lucky 6 
Golden Knights unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Lightning win 38% of replays 
Canadiens lucky 2 
Jets unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 38% of replays 
Mammoth 3 
Kraken 5 Coin flip · Kraken win 40% of replays Lightning 4 Mammoth 5 Coin flip · Mammoth win 40% of replays Sharks 4 Canadiens 3 Coin flip · Sharks win 42% of replays 
Maple Leafs 6 
Blue Jackets 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 43% of replays Golden Knights 1 Blue Jackets 2 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 43% of replays 
Red Wings 1 Flames 4 Coin flip · Flames win 43% of replays 
Panthers 3 
Blackhawks 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 45% of replays Maple Leafs 7 Oilers 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 45% of replays 
Rangers 4 Senators 7 Coin flip · Senators win 46% of replays Kings 3 
Islanders 2 Coin flip · Kings win 49% of replays Golden Knights 2 
Blues 6 Coin flip · Blues win 52% of replays 
Flyers 3 
Sabres 1 Coin flip · Flyers win 53% of replays Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Canadiens win 54% of replays Panthers 0 
Penguins 4 Coin flip · Penguins win 54% of replays Sharks 1 Maple Leafs 3 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 55% of replays 
Bruins 2 
Stars 3 Coin flip · Stars win 55% of replays 
Hurricanes 5 Oilers 6 Coin flip · Oilers win 56% of replays Avalanche 3 
Devils 4 Coin flip · Devils win 58% of replays Red Wings 3 Kraken 4 Coin flip · Kraken win 58% of replays Panthers 1 Senators 5 Coin flip · Senators win 59% of replays Jets 1 Blues 2 Replays agree · Blues win 61% of replays 
Predators 2 Penguins 3 Replays agree · Penguins win 61% of replays Hurricanes 4 Blues 0 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 61% of replays Avalanche 2 Flyers 3 Replays agree · Flyers win 62% of replays Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 5 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 62% of replays Predators 0 Bruins 6 Replays agree · Bruins win 63% of replays 
Ducks 5 Flyers 4 Replays agree · Ducks win 64% of replays Avalanche 2 Predators 6 Replays agree · Predators win 65% of replays Jets 2 Stars 3 Replays agree · Stars win 66% of replays Ducks 2 Rangers 5 Replays agree · Rangers win 69% of replays Ducks 1 Devils 4 Replays agree · Devils win 72% of replays Wild 5 Kraken 1 Replays agree · Wild win 72% of replays Penguins 4 Mammoth 5 Replays agree · Mammoth win 73% of replays Red Wings 5 
Canucks 2 Replays agree · Red Wings win 73% of replays Sabres 3 Capitals 4 Replays agree · Capitals win 73% of replays Islanders 3 Stars 6 Replays agree · Stars win 74% of replays Kings 1 Devils 3 Replays agree · Devils win 79% of replays Sharks 4 Bruins 6 Replays agree · Bruins win 80% of replays Hurricanes 6 Canucks 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 83% of replays Wild 4 Canucks 2 Replays agree · Wild win 86% of replays Ducks 2 Islanders 3 Replays agree · Islanders win 88% of replays Week 4 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oilers | W 4–3 OT vs Wild Oct 20, 2026 | 30% | +70 |
| 2 | Sharks | W 6–2 @ Senators Oct 22, 2026 | 30% | +70 |
| 3 | Kings | W 5–2 @ Capitals Oct 20, 2026 | 32% | +68 |
| 4 | Flames | W 2–1 vs Wild Oct 22, 2026 | 33% | +67 |
| 5 | Avalanche | W 6–3 vs Lightning Oct 23, 2026 | 36% | +64 |
| 6 | Lightning | W 6–2 @ Golden Knights Oct 20, 2026 | 38% | +62 |
| 7 | Canadiens | W 2–1 @ Jets Oct 25, 2026 | 38% | +62 |
| 8 | Kraken | W 5–3 vs Mammoth Oct 22, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 9 | Mammoth | W 5–4 OT vs Lightning Oct 24, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 10 | Sharks | W 4–3 OT @ Canadiens Oct 20, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 11 | Maple Leafs | W 6–2 @ Blue Jackets Oct 20, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 12 | Blue Jackets | W 2–1 OT vs Golden Knights Oct 24, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 13 | Flames | W 4–1 vs Red Wings Oct 24, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Panthers | W 3–2 @ Blackhawks Oct 25, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 15 | Maple Leafs | W 7–2 @ Oilers Oct 24, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 16 | Senators | W 7–4 vs Rangers Oct 24, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 17 | Kings | W 3–2 OT @ Islanders Oct 22, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 18 | Blues | W 6–2 vs Golden Knights Oct 22, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 19 | Flyers | W 3–1 @ Sabres Oct 21, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 20 | Canadiens | W 4–1 @ Blackhawks Oct 23, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 21 | Penguins | W 4–0 vs Panthers Oct 22, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 22 | Maple Leafs | W 3–1 vs Sharks Oct 19, 2026 | 55% | +46 |
| 23 | Stars | W 3–2 OT vs Bruins Oct 20, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 24 | Oilers | W 6–5 SO vs Hurricanes Oct 22, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 25 | Devils | W 4–3 vs Avalanche Oct 20, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 26 | Kraken | W 4–3 SO vs Red Wings Oct 20, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 27 | Senators | W 5–1 vs Panthers Oct 21, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 28 | Blues | W 2–1 vs Jets Oct 20, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 29 | Penguins | W 3–2 OT vs Predators Oct 24, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 30 | Hurricanes | W 4–0 @ Blues Oct 24, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 31 | Flyers | W 3–2 vs Avalanche Oct 19, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 32 | Maple Leafs | W 5–4 vs Rangers Oct 22, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 33 | Bruins | W 6–0 vs Predators Oct 22, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 34 | Ducks | W 5–4 @ Flyers Oct 24, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 35 | Predators | W 6–2 vs Avalanche Oct 25, 2026 | 65% | +35 |
| 36 | Stars | W 3–2 OT vs Jets Oct 22, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 37 | Rangers | W 5–2 vs Ducks Oct 19, 2026 | 69% | +31 |
| 38 | Devils | W 4–1 vs Ducks Oct 22, 2026 | 72% | +28 |
| 39 | Wild | W 5–1 @ Kraken Oct 24, 2026 | 72% | +28 |
| 40 | Mammoth | W 5–4 vs Penguins Oct 19, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 41 | Red Wings | W 5–2 @ Canucks Oct 22, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 42 | Capitals | W 4–3 OT vs Sabres Oct 24, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 43 | Stars | W 6–3 vs Islanders Oct 25, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 44 | Devils | W 3–1 vs Kings Oct 24, 2026 | 79% | +21 |
| 45 | Bruins | W 6–4 vs Sharks Oct 24, 2026 | 80% | +20 |
| 46 | Hurricanes | W 6–3 @ Canucks Oct 20, 2026 | 83% | +17 |
| 47 | Wild | W 4–2 @ Canucks Oct 25, 2026 | 86% | +14 |
| 48 | Islanders | W 3–2 vs Ducks Oct 20, 2026 | 88% | +12 |
| 49 | Ducks | L 2–3 @ Islanders Oct 20, 2026 | 12% | −12 |
| 50 | Canucks | L 2–4 vs Wild Oct 25, 2026 | 14% | −14 |
| 51 | Canucks | L 3–6 vs Hurricanes Oct 20, 2026 | 17% | −17 |
| 52 | Sharks | L 4–6 @ Bruins Oct 24, 2026 | 20% | −20 |
| 53 | Kings | L 1–3 @ Devils Oct 24, 2026 | 21% | −21 |
| 54 | Islanders | L 3–6 @ Stars Oct 25, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 55 | Sabres | L 3–4 OT @ Capitals Oct 24, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 56 | Canucks | L 2–5 vs Red Wings Oct 22, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 57 | Penguins | L 4–5 @ Mammoth Oct 19, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 58 | Kraken | L 1–5 vs Wild Oct 24, 2026 | 28% | −28 |
| 59 | Ducks | L 1–4 @ Devils Oct 22, 2026 | 28% | −28 |
| 60 | Ducks | L 2–5 @ Rangers Oct 19, 2026 | 31% | −31 |
| 61 | Jets | L 2–3 OT @ Stars Oct 22, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 62 | Avalanche | L 2–6 @ Predators Oct 25, 2026 | 35% | −35 |
| 63 | Flyers | L 4–5 vs Ducks Oct 24, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 64 | Predators | L 0–6 @ Bruins Oct 22, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Rangers | L 4–5 @ Maple Leafs Oct 22, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 66 | Avalanche | L 2–3 @ Flyers Oct 19, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 67 | Blues | L 0–4 vs Hurricanes Oct 24, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 68 | Predators | L 2–3 OT @ Penguins Oct 24, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 69 | Jets | L 1–2 @ Blues Oct 20, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 70 | Panthers | L 1–5 @ Senators Oct 21, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 71 | Red Wings | L 3–4 SO @ Kraken Oct 20, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 72 | Avalanche | L 3–4 @ Devils Oct 20, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 73 | Hurricanes | L 5–6 SO @ Oilers Oct 22, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 74 | Bruins | L 2–3 OT @ Stars Oct 20, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 75 | Sharks | L 1–3 @ Maple Leafs Oct 19, 2026 | 45% | −46 |
| 76 | Panthers | L 0–4 @ Penguins Oct 22, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 77 | Blackhawks | L 1–4 vs Canadiens Oct 23, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 78 | Sabres | L 1–3 vs Flyers Oct 21, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 79 | Golden Knights | L 2–6 @ Blues Oct 22, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 80 | Islanders | L 2–3 OT vs Kings Oct 22, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 81 | Rangers | L 4–7 @ Senators Oct 24, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 82 | Oilers | L 2–7 vs Maple Leafs Oct 24, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 83 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 vs Panthers Oct 25, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 84 | Red Wings | L 1–4 @ Flames Oct 24, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 85 | Golden Knights | L 1–2 OT @ Blue Jackets Oct 24, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 86 | Blue Jackets | L 2–6 vs Maple Leafs Oct 20, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 87 | Canadiens | L 3–4 OT vs Sharks Oct 20, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 88 | Lightning | L 4–5 OT @ Mammoth Oct 24, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 89 | Mammoth | L 3–5 @ Kraken Oct 22, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 90 | Jets | L 1–2 vs Canadiens Oct 25, 2026 | 62% | −62 |
| 91 | Golden Knights | L 2–6 vs Lightning Oct 20, 2026 | 62% | −62 |
| 92 | Lightning | L 3–6 @ Avalanche Oct 23, 2026 | 64% | −64 |
| 93 | Wild | L 1–2 @ Flames Oct 22, 2026 | 67% | −67 |
| 94 | Capitals | L 2–5 vs Kings Oct 20, 2026 | 68% | −68 |
| 95 | Senators | L 2–6 vs Sharks Oct 22, 2026 | 70% | −70 |
| 96 | Wild | L 3–4 OT @ Oilers Oct 20, 2026 | 70% | −70 |