2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Rangers at Maple Leafs, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Maple Leafs beat the Rangers 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Rangers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 34 points of win probability to the Rangers.
The biggest swing (P3, 0:28 left): Troy Stecher scored on a wrist shot from 28 feet, worth 44 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
Final
 New York Rangers | 4 |
|---|---|
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Maple Leafs lucky · −38 Rangers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rangers win 4, Maple Leafs win 6.
- 1 NYR 5 TOR 2
- 2 NYR 4 TOR 2
- 3 NYR 5 TOR 4
- 4 NYR 3 TOR 2
- 5 NYR 3 TOR 4
- 6 NYR 2 TOR 3
- 7 NYR 1 TOR 3
- 8 NYR 3 TOR 5
- 9 NYR 1 TOR 4
- 10 NYR 1 TOR 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Rangers by 0.2, 53% to win. The Maple Leafs won by 1, a result we gave 47%. The final margin was 1.2 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rangers win | 52.8% |
| Maple Leafs win | 47.2% |
| Middle 50%: Rangers by 2 to Maple Leafs by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Rangers by 4 to Maple Leafs by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Rangers by 5 to Maple Leafs by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Rangers by 1 | 20.9% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Rangers by 3 | 12.4% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 3 | 10.8% |
| Exactly Rangers by 2 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 11:45 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Rangers win 38% of them, Maple Leafs 62%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rangers by 3+ | 10.1% |
| Rangers by 2 | 7.6% |
| Rangers by 1 | 19.8% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 23.7% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 12.4% |
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 26.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rangers | 41 | 4 | 2.06 | +1.94 |
 Maple Leafs | 55 | 5 | 2.96 | +2.04 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 2:04 | Hooking on the Rangers (Alexis Lafrenière): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% TOR |
| P3 17:01 | Interference on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TOR |
| P3 10:45 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NYR |
When it happened
Maple Leafs’ chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:21 | Mika Zibanejad scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% NYR | – |
| 2 | P1 9:59 | Teddy Blueger scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% TOR | – |
| 3 | P2 17:23 | Oliver Bjorkstrand scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 15% chance | +16% NYR | – |
| 4 | P2 13:30 | Tye Kartye scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 14% chance | +18% NYR | – |
| 5 | P2 12:00 | Brandon Duhaime scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 11% chance | +19% TOR | – |
| 6 | P2 0:51 | Kirill Marchenko scored on a poke shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance | +21% TOR | – |
| 7 | P3 5:35 | Alexis Lafrenière scored on a wrist shot from 57 feetShooting · 1% chance | +36% NYR | – |
| 8 | P3 0:28 | Troy Stecher scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 6% chance | +44% TOR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rangers 33% · Maple Leafs 67%
- Final margin
- Maple Leafs by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maple Leafs by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rangers 38% · Maple Leafs 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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