2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Flames, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flames beat the Red Wings 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Flames.
The biggest swing (P2, 11:22 left): Zayne Parekh scored on a wrist shot from 52 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Detroit Red Wings | 1 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Flames lucky · −57 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 6, Flames win 4.
- 1 DET 4 CGY 0
- 2 DET 4 CGY 1
- 3 DET 3 CGY 1
- 4 DET 1 CGY 0
- 5 DET 2 CGY 1
- 6 DET 3 CGY 2
- 7 DET 0 CGY 1
- 8 DET 2 CGY 3
- 9 DET 1 CGY 3
- 10 DET 2 CGY 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Red Wings by 0.3, 55% to win. The Flames won by 3, a result we gave 45%. The final margin was 3.3 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Red Wings win | 54.7% |
| Flames win | 45.3% |
| Middle 50%: Red Wings by 2 to Flames by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Red Wings by 4 to Flames by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Red Wings by 5 to Flames by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 21.1% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 13.0% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 2 | 11.1% |
| Exactly Flames by 3 | 10.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 6:44 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Red Wings win 57% of them, Flames 43%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 20.9% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 11.6% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 24.4% |
| Flames by 1 | 23.5% |
| Flames by 2 | 9.5% |
| Flames by 3+ | 10.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 40 | 1 | 2.33 | −1.33 |
 Flames | 31 | 4 | 1.65 | +2.35 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 11:43 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Alex DeBrincat): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CGY |
| P2 8:53 | Holding the stick on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 1:49 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Red Wings (Michael Brandsegg-Nygård): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% CGY |
| P3 15:36 | Tripping on the Flames (Jonathan Castagna): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% DET |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 2:10 | Joel Farabee scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 15% chance | +15% CGY | – |
| 2 | P2 17:38 | Andrew Copp scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 7% chance | +18% DET | – |
| 3 | P2 11:43 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Alex DeBrincat): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 11:22 | Zayne Parekh scored on a wrist shot from 52 feetShooting · 2% chance | +20% CGY | – |
| 5 | P2 8:53 | Holding the stick on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 6 | P2 8:43 | Viktor Arvidsson’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +4% CGY | – |
| 7 | P2 2:56 | Ryan Strome scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance | +12% CGY | – |
| 8 | P2 1:30 | Matvei Gridin scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 24% chance | +5% CGY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 42% · Flames 58%
- Final margin
- Flames by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.8 for the Flames
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flames by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 57% · Flames 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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