luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Senators, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Senators 6–2, but the replays lean toward the Senators: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The biggest swing (P2, 10:47 left): Tyler Toffoli scored on a wrist shot from 51 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final

San Jose Sharks 6
Ottawa Senators 2

October 22, 2026 · Canadian Tire Centre

Our prediction before puck drop: Senators by 0.9

Luck index +70 Sharks very lucky · −70 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 3, Senators win 7.

  1. 1 SJS 7 OTT 4
  2. 2 SJS 5 OTT 4
  3. 3 SJS 4 OTT 3
  4. 4 SJS 2 OTT 3
  5. 5 SJS 2 OTT 3
  6. 6 SJS 1 OTT 3
  7. 7 SJS 1 OTT 4
  8. 8 SJS 2 OTT 5
  9. 9 SJS 1 OTT 6
  10. 10 SJS 1 OTT 7

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Senators by 0.9, 65% to win. The Sharks won by 4, a result we gave 35%. The final margin was 4.9 goals from ours; 3% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Sharks win34.9%
Senators win65.1%
Middle 50%: Sharks by 1 to Senators by 350%
Middle 90%: Sharks by 3 to Senators by 590%
Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Senators by 595%
Exactly Senators by 122.5%
Exactly Senators by 316.7%
Exactly Sharks by 116.6%
Exactly Senators by 211.9%
Exactly Senators by 48.5%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 11:45 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Sharks win 30% of them, Senators 70%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+8.7%
Sharks by 25.9%
Sharks by 115.6%
Senators by 117.3%
Senators by 210.4%
Senators by 3+42.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 4, without the luck Sharks by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks4242.75+1.25
Senators7025.19−3.19

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 3:49 Tripping on the Senators (Michael Amadio): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 12:12 Tripping on the Senators (Jake Sanderson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P2 8:52 Roughing on the Sharks (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 2:17 Holding on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play +1% OTT
P3 3:55 Tripping on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play +1% OTT

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:44 Tim Stützle scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% OTT –
2 P1 8:56 Nolan Allan scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% SJS –
3 P2 10:47 Tyler Toffoli scored on a wrist shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance +21% SJS –
4 P2 8:56 Fabian Zetterlund’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance +6% SJS –
5 P2 8:55 Fabian Zetterlund’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 36% chance +8% SJS –
6 P2 8:00 Collin Graf scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% SJS –
7 P2 6:42 Jacob Trouba scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 18% chance +7% SJS –
8 P3 13:36 Jordan Spence scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 7% chance +5% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 51% · Senators 49%

Final margin
Sharks by 4
Luck in goals
3.8 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Sharks by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 30% · Senators 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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