luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · final

The NHL’s luckiest and unluckiest teams of 2025-26

The Bruins were the luckiest team of 2025-26: 100 points from play worth 81.1 once every shot and overtime is replayed. The Golden Knights were the unluckiest: 95 points from play worth 102.5.

Luck here is points minus coin-flip points: each game replayed 4,000 times with every shot’s result redrawn at its chance and overtime and the shootout replayed, the rest as played, and the points the team averages in those replays added up. Regular season. How it works

#TeamRecordPtsCoin-flip ptsLuck in pointsFinishingGoaltendingOT & SOPDOThrough the season
1 Bruins 45–27–10 100 81.1 +18.9 +17.9 +20.2 +2.1 1.017
2 Canadiens 48–24–10 106 87.8 +18.2 +12.1 +13.2 +4.0 1.017
3 Sabres 50–23–9 109 95.4 +13.6 +12.3 +17.7 −0.9 1.021
4 Sharks 39–35–8 86 72.8 +13.2 +11.3 −16.3 +4.0 0.998
5 Islanders 43–34–5 91 78.2 +12.8 −12.5 +17.9 +9.2 0.994
6 Wild 46–24–12 104 93.2 +10.8 +8.3 +8.0 +2.9 1.012
7 Stars 50–20–12 112 102.1 +9.9 +16.0 +10.3 0.0 1.031
8 Ducks 43–33–6 92 83.5 +8.5 −9.2 −12.2 +10.9 0.981
9 Flyers 43–27–12 98 89.9 +8.1 −4.3 −1.6 +3.8 0.998
10 Predators 38–34–10 86 78.1 +7.9 −0.7 +5.0 +0.1 0.998
11 Red Wings 41–31–10 92 84.8 +7.2 −19.3 +2.9 +0.9 0.989
12 Maple Leafs 32–36–14 78 71.4 +6.6 +10.8 −7.5 −5.0 1.005
13 Kraken 34–37–11 79 73.8 +5.2 +1.7 +0.5 −3.0 1.001
14 Penguins 41–25–16 98 93.2 +4.8 +19.3 −4.7 −9.0 1.011
15 Flames 34–39–9 77 72.7 +4.3 −8.2 +8.0 −2.1 0.988
16 Avalanche 55–16–11 121 117.0 +4.0 +0.8 +20.3 −3.9 1.015
17 Hurricanes 53–22–7 113 109.0 +4.0 +1.4 −8.3 +6.9 0.988
18 Capitals 43–30–9 95 92.2 +2.8 −6.3 +17.1 −3.0 1.007
19 Blackhawks 29–39–14 72 69.3 +2.7 −1.3 +4.4 −7.1 0.998
20 Blues 37–33–12 86 83.8 +2.2 +3.5 −13.3 −8.0 1.000
21 Oilers 41–30–11 93 91.6 +1.4 +6.0 −7.8 −1.9 0.993
22 Devils 42–37–3 87 85.7 +1.3 −21.6 −9.7 +9.8 0.977
23 Lightning 50–26–6 106 105.1 +0.9 +4.8 +6.2 +3.9 1.016
24 Blue Jackets 40–30–12 92 91.1 +0.9 −9.2 +3.3 0.0 0.997
25 Senators 44–27–11 99 99.7 −0.7 +16.5 −25.6 −4.9 0.993
26 Panthers 40–38–4 84 85.3 −1.3 −4.2 −19.7 +4.0 0.986
27 Mammoth 43–33–6 92 93.7 −1.7 −2.0 +3.6 +4.0 1.002
28 Rangers 34–39–9 77 79.0 −2.0 +4.1 +7.0 −0.1 1.013
29 Canucks 25–49–8 58 61.0 −3.0 −8.3 −22.1 +2.0 0.976
30 Kings 35–27–20 90 93.3 −3.3 −12.8 −4.8 −6.9 0.991
31 Jets 35–35–12 82 86.7 −4.7 −7.1 −11.2 −5.0 0.994
32 Golden Knights 39–26–17 95 102.5 −7.5 −0.4 −20.1 −7.7 0.992

Finishing and goaltending: the goal differential luck added on the team’s own shots and on its opponents’ (goals above or below the shots’ chances, the luck share of it; a team’s goaltending luck is its goalies’ saves beyond their own record). OT & SO: goals’ worth of overtime and shootout luck (a win counts as two goals of margin: the overtime winner turns a tie into a one-goal win). PDO: shooting plus save percentage on shots on goal, regulation with both goalies in. Through the season: luck in wins, week by week. Expected goals and PDO, team by team

2025-26, week by week

WeekDatesWinners behind in replaysBiggest steal
Stanley Cup Final Jun 3, 2026–Jun 15, 2026 0 of 6 Hurricanes 5–3 Golden Knights · won 43% of replays
Conference finals May 21, 2026–May 30, 2026 1 of 9 Golden Knights 4–2 Avalanche · won 28% of replays
Second round May 3, 2026–May 18, 2026 1 of 22 Canadiens 3–2 Sabres · won 36% of replays
First round Apr 18, 2026–May 3, 2026 5 of 45 Canadiens 2–1 Lightning · won 25% of replays
Week 28 Apr 13, 2026–Apr 16, 2026 6 of 31 Panthers 3–2 Rangers · won 25% of replays
Week 27 Apr 6, 2026–Apr 12, 2026 5 of 53 Canucks 4–3 Ducks · won 28% of replays
Week 26 Mar 30, 2026–Apr 5, 2026 3 of 56 Red Wings 4–2 Flyers · won 29% of replays
Week 25 Mar 23, 2026–Mar 29, 2026 9 of 54 Blackhawks 4–3 Islanders · won 19% of replays
Week 24 Mar 16, 2026–Mar 22, 2026 9 of 56 Predators 4–3 Jets · won 23% of replays
Week 23 Mar 9, 2026–Mar 15, 2026 12 of 56 Blackhawks 3–2 Mammoth · won 23% of replays
Week 22 Mar 2, 2026–Mar 8, 2026 5 of 55 Canadiens 4–3 Kings · won 23% of replays
Week 21 Feb 25, 2026–Mar 1, 2026 4 of 43 Red Wings 2–1 Senators · won 31% of replays
Week 18 Feb 2, 2026–Feb 5, 2026 5 of 34 Canadiens 5–1 Jets · won 25% of replays
Week 17 Jan 26, 2026–Feb 1, 2026 7 of 50 Wild 4–3 Blackhawks · won 26% of replays
Week 16 Jan 19, 2026–Jan 25, 2026 11 of 55 Ducks 2–1 Avalanche · won 17% of replays
Week 15 Jan 12, 2026–Jan 18, 2026 10 of 54 Islanders 1–0 Oilers · won 19% of replays
Week 14 Jan 5, 2026–Jan 11, 2026 11 of 54 Islanders 4–3 Wild · won 30% of replays
Week 13 Dec 29, 2025–Jan 4, 2026 12 of 56 Sharks 5–4 Ducks · won 21% of replays
Week 12 Dec 22, 2025–Dec 28, 2025 7 of 35 Kraken 3–1 Ducks · won 24% of replays
Week 11 Dec 15, 2025–Dec 21, 2025 10 of 57 Red Wings 3–2 Capitals · won 24% of replays
Week 10 Dec 8, 2025–Dec 14, 2025 5 of 53 Ducks 4–3 Penguins · won 17% of replays
Week 9 Dec 1, 2025–Dec 7, 2025 9 of 55 Blues 2–1 Senators · won 29% of replays
Week 8 Nov 24, 2025–Nov 30, 2025 16 of 53 Bruins 3–1 Islanders · won 27% of replays
Week 7 Nov 17, 2025–Nov 23, 2025 8 of 52 Kraken 3–2 Penguins · won 26% of replays
Week 6 Nov 10, 2025–Nov 16, 2025 9 of 49 Islanders 3–2 Devils · won 20% of replays
Week 5 Nov 3, 2025–Nov 9, 2025 12 of 53 Blackhawks 5–1 Red Wings · won 15% of replays
Week 4 Oct 27, 2025–Nov 2, 2025 10 of 51 Kings 4–3 Sharks · won 16% of replays
Week 3 Oct 20, 2025–Oct 26, 2025 10 of 55 Red Wings 6–4 Blues · won 26% of replays
Week 2 Oct 13, 2025–Oct 19, 2025 10 of 54 Oilers 2–0 Rangers · won 26% of replays
Week 1 Oct 7, 2025–Oct 12, 2025 8 of 38 Bruins 3–1 Capitals · won 27% of replays

Questions

Who is the luckiest NHL team of 2025-26?

The Boston Bruins: 45–27–10, 100 points, from play worth 81.1 (+18.9 points of luck). The unluckiest: the Vegas Golden Knights, 95 points from play worth 102.5.

How is luck measured in hockey?

Every unblocked shot has a chance of going in, from where and how it was taken and the shooter’s and goalie’s records. A team that scores more than its chances add up to, or whose goalie stops more than his record says he should, has had luck, and so has a team that wins more than half its overtimes and shootouts. Replaying every game with those results redrawn gives the points each team’s play was worth; the difference is luck.

What is PDO in hockey?

A team’s shooting percentage plus its save percentage. Over a season it sits near 1.000 for most teams, so a team well above it is usually riding hot shooting or a hot goalie, and PDO is the classic sign of a team due to fall back. It ignores shot quality; the luck here measures the same thing shot by shot, and predicts the rest of a season better (see the methodology).

More from 2025-26

Standings adjusted for luck · One-goal games · Expected goals and PDO · Power rankings · Every team · How the replays work

Other seasons

2026-27