Oilers lucky 2 
Rangers unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 26% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 19, 2025
NHL week 2: who deserved to win
10 of 54 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Oilers beat the Rangers 2–0 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 54 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Oilers lucky 2 Rangers unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 26% of replays 
Canucks lucky 5 
Stars unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 35% of replays 
Kraken unlucky 3 
Senators lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Senators win 36% of replays 
Devils lucky 3 
Blue Jackets unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Devils win 38% of replays 
Panthers unlucky 0 
Sabres lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 38% of replays Kraken lucky 4 
Maple Leafs unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 38% of replays 
Red Wings lucky 3 Maple Leafs unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 38% of replays Oilers unlucky 2 
Islanders lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 39% of replays 
Jets lucky 5 
Flyers unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Jets win 39% of replays Senators unlucky 4 Sabres lucky 8 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 39% of replays Canucks 4 
Capitals 3 Coin flip · Canucks win 42% of replays Rangers 1 Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 43% of replays Islanders 5 Senators 4 Coin flip · Islanders win 44% of replays 
Mammoth 1 
Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 45% of replays Jets 5 Islanders 2 Coin flip · Jets win 46% of replays 
Ducks 1 Blackhawks 2 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 46% of replays 
Lightning 1 Red Wings 2 Coin flip · Red Wings win 46% of replays 
Wild 2 Stars 5 Coin flip · Stars win 47% of replays 
Predators 4 Senators 1 Coin flip · Predators win 48% of replays 
Golden Knights 4 
Flames 2 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 49% of replays Kraken 4 
Canadiens 5 Coin flip · Canadiens win 50% of replays Oilers 2 Red Wings 4 Coin flip · Red Wings win 51% of replays Wild 1 Flyers 2 Coin flip · Flyers win 51% of replays 
Kings 3 Wild 4 Coin flip · Wild win 51% of replays Lightning 2 Capitals 3 Coin flip · Capitals win 53% of replays Predators 1 Jets 4 Coin flip · Jets win 53% of replays 
Penguins 4 Kings 2 Coin flip · Penguins win 53% of replays 
Blues 5 Canucks 2 Coin flip · Blues win 54% of replays Rangers 4 Canadiens 3 Coin flip · Rangers win 54% of replays Penguins 3 
Sharks 0 Coin flip · Penguins win 55% of replays Predators 2 Canadiens 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 57% of replays Lightning 4 
Bruins 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 57% of replays Oilers 3 Devils 5 Coin flip · Devils win 57% of replays Flames 1 Golden Knights 6 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 58% of replays Panthers 1 Red Wings 4 Coin flip · Red Wings win 58% of replays Penguins 3 Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 59% of replays Blackhawks 8 Blues 3 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 60% of replays Flames 1 Mammoth 3 Coin flip · Mammoth win 60% of replays Stars 1 Blues 3 Coin flip · Blues win 60% of replays Panthers 2 Flyers 5 Coin flip · Flyers win 60% of replays Predators 4 Maple Leafs 7 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 62% of replays Panthers 1 Devils 3 Replays agree · Devils win 62% of replays 
Avalanche 3 Sabres 1 Replays agree · Avalanche win 63% of replays 
Hurricanes 4 Kings 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 63% of replays Hurricanes 5 Sharks 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 66% of replays Bruins 2 Mammoth 3 Replays agree · Mammoth win 66% of replays Canucks 3 Blackhawks 2 Replays agree · Canucks win 66% of replays Hurricanes 4 Ducks 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 67% of replays Avalanche 4 Blue Jackets 1 Replays agree · Avalanche win 68% of replays Lightning 2 Blue Jackets 3 Replays agree · Blue Jackets win 68% of replays Bruins 5 Golden Knights 6 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 72% of replays Sharks 3 Mammoth 6 Replays agree · Mammoth win 75% of replays Bruins 1 Avalanche 4 Replays agree · Avalanche win 79% of replays Wild 1 Capitals 5 Replays agree · Capitals win 80% of replays Week 2 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oilers | W 2–0 @ Rangers Oct 14, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 2 | Canucks | W 5–3 @ Stars Oct 16, 2025 | 35% | +65 |
| 3 | Senators | W 4–3 SO vs Kraken Oct 16, 2025 | 36% | +64 |
| 4 | Devils | W 3–2 @ Blue Jackets Oct 13, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 5 | Sabres | W 3–0 vs Panthers Oct 18, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 6 | Kraken | W 4–3 OT @ Maple Leafs Oct 18, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 7 | Red Wings | W 3–2 @ Maple Leafs Oct 13, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 8 | Islanders | W 4–2 vs Oilers Oct 16, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 9 | Jets | W 5–2 @ Flyers Oct 16, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 10 | Sabres | W 8–4 vs Senators Oct 15, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 11 | Canucks | W 4–3 @ Capitals Oct 19, 2025 | 42% | +59 |
| 12 | Maple Leafs | W 2–1 OT vs Rangers Oct 16, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 13 | Islanders | W 5–4 @ Senators Oct 18, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 14 | Blackhawks | W 3–1 vs Mammoth Oct 13, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 15 | Jets | W 5–2 @ Islanders Oct 13, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 16 | Blackhawks | W 2–1 OT vs Ducks Oct 19, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 17 | Red Wings | W 2–1 OT vs Lightning Oct 17, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 18 | Stars | W 5–2 vs Wild Oct 14, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 19 | Predators | W 4–1 @ Senators Oct 13, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Golden Knights | W 4–2 @ Flames Oct 14, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 21 | Canadiens | W 5–4 OT vs Kraken Oct 14, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 22 | Red Wings | W 4–2 vs Oilers Oct 19, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 23 | Flyers | W 2–1 OT vs Wild Oct 18, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 24 | Wild | W 4–3 SO vs Kings Oct 13, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 25 | Capitals | W 3–2 OT vs Lightning Oct 14, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 26 | Jets | W 4–1 vs Predators Oct 18, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 27 | Penguins | W 4–2 @ Kings Oct 16, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 28 | Blues | W 5–2 @ Canucks Oct 13, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 29 | Rangers | W 4–3 @ Canadiens Oct 18, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 30 | Penguins | W 3–0 @ Sharks Oct 18, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 31 | Canadiens | W 3–2 OT vs Predators Oct 16, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 32 | Lightning | W 4–3 @ Bruins Oct 13, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 33 | Devils | W 5–3 vs Oilers Oct 18, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 34 | Golden Knights | W 6–1 vs Flames Oct 18, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 35 | Red Wings | W 4–1 vs Panthers Oct 15, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 36 | Ducks | W 4–3 vs Penguins Oct 14, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 37 | Blackhawks | W 8–3 @ Blues Oct 15, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 38 | Mammoth | W 3–1 vs Flames Oct 15, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 39 | Blues | W 3–1 vs Stars Oct 18, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 40 | Flyers | W 5–2 vs Panthers Oct 13, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 41 | Maple Leafs | W 7–4 vs Predators Oct 14, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 42 | Devils | W 3–1 vs Panthers Oct 16, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 43 | Avalanche | W 3–1 @ Sabres Oct 13, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 44 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 OT @ Kings Oct 18, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 45 | Hurricanes | W 5–1 @ Sharks Oct 14, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 46 | Mammoth | W 3–2 vs Bruins Oct 19, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 47 | Canucks | W 3–2 SO @ Blackhawks Oct 17, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 48 | Hurricanes | W 4–1 @ Ducks Oct 16, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 49 | Avalanche | W 4–1 @ Blue Jackets Oct 16, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 50 | Blue Jackets | W 3–2 vs Lightning Oct 18, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 51 | Golden Knights | W 6–5 vs Bruins Oct 16, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 52 | Mammoth | W 6–3 vs Sharks Oct 17, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 53 | Avalanche | W 4–1 vs Bruins Oct 18, 2025 | 79% | +21 |
| 54 | Capitals | W 5–1 vs Wild Oct 17, 2025 | 80% | +20 |
| 55 | Wild | L 1–5 @ Capitals Oct 17, 2025 | 20% | −20 |
| 56 | Bruins | L 1–4 @ Avalanche Oct 18, 2025 | 21% | −21 |
| 57 | Sharks | L 3–6 @ Mammoth Oct 17, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 58 | Bruins | L 5–6 @ Golden Knights Oct 16, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 59 | Lightning | L 2–3 @ Blue Jackets Oct 18, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 60 | Blue Jackets | L 1–4 vs Avalanche Oct 16, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 61 | Ducks | L 1–4 vs Hurricanes Oct 16, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 62 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 SO vs Canucks Oct 17, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 63 | Bruins | L 2–3 @ Mammoth Oct 19, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 64 | Sharks | L 1–5 vs Hurricanes Oct 14, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 65 | Kings | L 3–4 OT vs Hurricanes Oct 18, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 66 | Sabres | L 1–3 vs Avalanche Oct 13, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 67 | Panthers | L 1–3 @ Devils Oct 16, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 68 | Predators | L 4–7 @ Maple Leafs Oct 14, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 69 | Panthers | L 2–5 @ Flyers Oct 13, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 70 | Stars | L 1–3 @ Blues Oct 18, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 71 | Blues | L 3–8 vs Blackhawks Oct 15, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 72 | Flames | L 1–3 @ Mammoth Oct 15, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 73 | Penguins | L 3–4 @ Ducks Oct 14, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 74 | Panthers | L 1–4 @ Red Wings Oct 15, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 75 | Flames | L 1–6 @ Golden Knights Oct 18, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 76 | Oilers | L 3–5 @ Devils Oct 18, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 77 | Bruins | L 3–4 vs Lightning Oct 13, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 78 | Predators | L 2–3 OT @ Canadiens Oct 16, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 79 | Sharks | L 0–3 vs Penguins Oct 18, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 80 | Canadiens | L 3–4 vs Rangers Oct 18, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 81 | Canucks | L 2–5 vs Blues Oct 13, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 82 | Kings | L 2–4 vs Penguins Oct 16, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 83 | Predators | L 1–4 @ Jets Oct 18, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 84 | Lightning | L 2–3 OT @ Capitals Oct 14, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 85 | Kings | L 3–4 SO @ Wild Oct 13, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 86 | Wild | L 1–2 OT @ Flyers Oct 18, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 87 | Oilers | L 2–4 @ Red Wings Oct 19, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 88 | Kraken | L 4–5 OT @ Canadiens Oct 14, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 89 | Flames | L 2–4 vs Golden Knights Oct 14, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 90 | Senators | L 1–4 vs Predators Oct 13, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 91 | Wild | L 2–5 @ Stars Oct 14, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 92 | Lightning | L 1–2 OT @ Red Wings Oct 17, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 93 | Ducks | L 1–2 OT @ Blackhawks Oct 19, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 94 | Islanders | L 2–5 vs Jets Oct 13, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 95 | Mammoth | L 1–3 @ Blackhawks Oct 13, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 96 | Senators | L 4–5 vs Islanders Oct 18, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 97 | Rangers | L 1–2 OT @ Maple Leafs Oct 16, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 98 | Capitals | L 3–4 vs Canucks Oct 19, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 99 | Senators | L 4–8 @ Sabres Oct 15, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 100 | Flyers | L 2–5 vs Jets Oct 16, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 101 | Oilers | L 2–4 @ Islanders Oct 16, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 102 | Maple Leafs | L 2–3 vs Red Wings Oct 13, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 103 | Maple Leafs | L 3–4 OT vs Kraken Oct 18, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 104 | Panthers | L 0–3 @ Sabres Oct 18, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 105 | Blue Jackets | L 2–3 vs Devils Oct 13, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 106 | Kraken | L 3–4 SO @ Senators Oct 16, 2025 | 64% | −64 |
| 107 | Stars | L 3–5 vs Canucks Oct 16, 2025 | 65% | −65 |
| 108 | Rangers | L 0–2 vs Oilers Oct 14, 2025 | 74% | −74 |