luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 18, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Sabres, Oct 18, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Panthers 3–0, but the replays lean toward the Panthers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Sabres.

The biggest swing (P1, 12:47 left): Josh Doan scored on a deflected shot from 9 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final

Florida Panthers 0
Buffalo Sabres 3

October 18, 2025 · KeyBank Center

Luck index +62 Sabres very lucky · −62 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Sabres win 4.

  1. 1 FLA 5 BUF 0
  2. 2 FLA 4 BUF 0
  3. 3 FLA 5 BUF 2
  4. 4 FLA 3 BUF 1
  5. 5 FLA 5 BUF 4
  6. 6 FLA 3 BUF 2
  7. 7 FLA 2 BUF 3
  8. 8 FLA 3 BUF 4
  9. 9 FLA 1 BUF 3
  10. 10 FLA 2 BUF 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Panthers win 62% of them, Sabres 38%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+31.8%
Panthers by 211.3%
Panthers by 118.6%
Sabres by 119.0%
Sabres by 27.9%
Sabres by 3+11.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 goals to the Sabres: the final margin was Sabres by 3, without the luck Panthers by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers5603.52−3.52
Sabres4632.38+0.62

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:51 Tripping on the Sabres (Zach Benson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 16:09 Interference on the Sabres (Bowen Byram): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 12:53 Interference on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 6:32 Too many men on the ice on the Sabres (BUF): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 0:15 Tripping on the Sabres (Peyton Krebs): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 19:07 Hooking on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 15:46 Holding on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 15:00 Hooking on the Sabres (Jason Zucker): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 9:20 Interference on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 0:12 Roughing on the Sabres (Josh Doan): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P3 12:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Sabres (Conor Timmins): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA

When it happened

Sabres’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sabres were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:53 Interference on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
2 P1 12:47 Josh Doan scored on a deflected shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% BUF –
3 P2 19:07 Hooking on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
4 P2 15:46 Holding on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
5 P2 15:00 Hooking on the Sabres (Jason Zucker): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% FLA –
6 P2 9:20 Interference on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
7 P2 8:48 Josh Doan scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +13% BUF –
8 P2 5:40 Owen Power scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 5% chance +7% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 52% · Sabres 48%

Final margin
Sabres by 3
Luck in goals
3.1 for the Sabres
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 62% · Sabres 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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