luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 18, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Maple Leafs, Oct 18, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Maple Leafs 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Maple Leafs: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Kraken won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final (OT)

Seattle Kraken 4
Toronto Maple Leafs 3

October 18, 2025 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +62 Kraken very lucky · −62 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 4, Maple Leafs win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 3 TOR 0
  2. 2 SEA 1 TOR 0
  3. 3 SEA 4 TOR 3
  4. 4 SEA 2 TOR 1
  5. 5 SEA 2 TOR 3
  6. 6 SEA 1 TOR 2
  7. 7 SEA 1 TOR 3
  8. 8 SEA 0 TOR 2
  9. 9 SEA 0 TOR 3
  10. 10 SEA 2 TOR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Kraken win 38% of them, Maple Leafs 62%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+7.7%
Kraken by 27.3%
Kraken by 123.3%
Maple Leafs by 126.5%
Maple Leafs by 213.7%
Maple Leafs by 3+21.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 1, without the luck Maple Leafs by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken3231.57+1.43
Maple Leafs4032.17+0.83

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:22 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Nicolas Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 11:02 Roughing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 3:16 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Bobby McMann): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 15:56 Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P2 0:55 Interference goalkeeper on the Kraken (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P3 18:43 Cross checking on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:31 Shane Wright scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% SEA –
2 P1 5:04 Morgan Rielly scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 4% chance +17% TOR –
3 P2 5:41 Jani Nyman scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 9% chance +21% SEA –
4 P2 3:59 John Tavares scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 3% chance +23% TOR –
5 P2 2:16 Vince Dunn scored on a wrist shot from 56 feetShooting · 1% chance +24% SEA –
6 P3 18:39 John Tavares scored on a backhand shot from 16 feetShooting · 8% chance +24% TOR –
7 P3 0:04 Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s wrist shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance +6% SEA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Kraken won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 36% · Maple Leafs 64%

Final margin
Kraken by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 38% · Maple Leafs 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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