luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 NHL season · after week 1

The luckiest NHL teams of 2026-27 so far

The Sharks are the luckiest team of 2026-27 so far: 2 points from play worth 0.6 once every shot and overtime is replayed. The Islanders are the unluckiest: 0 points from play worth 1.0.

Luck here is points minus coin-flip points: each game replayed 4,000 times with every shot’s result redrawn at its chance and overtime and the shootout replayed, the rest as played, and the points the team averages in those replays added up. Regular season. How it works

#TeamRecordPtsCoin-flip ptsLuck in pointsFinishingGoaltendingOT & SOPDOThrough the season
1 Sharks 1–0–0 2 0.6 +1.4 +0.4 +0.6 +1.0 1.000
2 Canucks 1–1–0 2 1.0 +1.0 +5.6 −5.1 +1.0 1.076
3 Avalanche 1–0–0 2 1.4 +0.6 +3.9 −0.8 0.0 1.147
4 Flyers 0–1–1 1 0.4 +0.6 −0.8 −0.9 −1.0 0.935
5 Blue Jackets 1–0–0 2 1.5 +0.5 +2.2 −0.4 0.0 1.112
6 Panthers 1–0–1 3 2.5 +0.5 −1.9 +1.1 +0.1 0.992
7 Canadiens 1–0–0 2 1.6 +0.4 +0.7 +0.6 0.0 1.054
8 Maple Leafs 1–1–0 2 1.7 +0.3 −1.0 +0.6 0.0 0.996
9 Bruins 1–0–0 2 1.7 +0.3 −0.3 +1.8 0.0 1.091
10 Devils 1–0–0 2 1.7 +0.3 −1.1 −0.5 +1.0 0.958
11 Wild 1–0–0 2 1.8 +0.2 −0.2 +0.7 0.0 1.050
12 Golden Knights 1–0–0 2 1.8 +0.2 +0.5 +0.3 0.0 1.034
13 Kraken 1–0–0 2 1.9 +0.1 +1.8 +1.1 0.0 1.147
14 Mammoth 1–0–0 2 1.9 +0.1 +1.8 +1.2 0.0 1.188
15 Penguins 1–0–0 2 2.0 0.0 +2.0 +1.2 0.0 1.184
16 Lightning 0–1–0 0 0.2 −0.2 −1.3 −1.1 0.0 0.873
17 Flames 0–1–0 0 0.2 −0.2 −1.1 −1.8 0.0 0.853
18 Oilers 1–0–1 3 3.2 −0.2 +5.1 −5.6 −1.0 0.924
19 Hurricanes 0–0–1 1 1.2 −0.2 −1.5 +1.3 −1.0 1.000
20 Rangers 1–1–0 2 2.3 −0.3 −0.8 +1.6 0.0 1.020
21 Blackhawks 0–2–0 0 0.3 −0.3 −1.4 −2.4 0.0 0.902
22 Predators 0–1–0 0 0.3 −0.3 −0.7 +0.2 0.0 0.950
23 Sabres 0–1–0 0 0.7 −0.7 +0.4 −2.2 0.0 0.888
24 Kings 0–1–0 0 0.8 −0.8 +0.8 −3.9 0.0 0.853
25 Islanders 0–1–0 0 1.0 −1.0 −1.3 +0.4 0.0 0.960

Finishing and goaltending: the goal differential luck added on the team’s own shots and on its opponents’ (goals above or below the shots’ chances, the luck share of it; a team’s goaltending luck is its goalies’ saves beyond their own record). OT & SO: goals’ worth of overtime and shootout luck (a win counts as two goals of margin: the overtime winner turns a tie into a one-goal win). PDO: shooting plus save percentage on shots on goal, regulation with both goalies in. Through the season: luck in wins, week by week. Expected goals and PDO, team by team

2026-27, week by week

WeekDatesWinners behind in replaysBiggest steal
Week 1 Sep 29, 2026–Oct 4, 2026 2 of 16 Canucks 6–5 Oilers · won 25% of replays

Questions

Who is the luckiest NHL team of 2026-27?

The San Jose Sharks so far: 1–0–0, 2 points, from play worth 0.6 (+1.4 points of luck). The unluckiest: the New York Islanders, 0 points from play worth 1.0.

How is luck measured in hockey?

Every unblocked shot has a chance of going in, from where and how it was taken and the shooter’s and goalie’s records. A team that scores more than its chances add up to, or whose goalie stops more than his record says he should, has had luck, and so has a team that wins more than half its overtimes and shootouts. Replaying every game with those results redrawn gives the points each team’s play was worth; the difference is luck.

What is PDO in hockey?

A team’s shooting percentage plus its save percentage. Over a season it sits near 1.000 for most teams, so a team well above it is usually riding hot shooting or a hot goalie, and PDO is the classic sign of a team due to fall back. It ignores shot quality; the luck here measures the same thing shot by shot, and predicts the rest of a season better (see the methodology).

More from 2026-27

Standings adjusted for luck · One-goal games · Expected goals and PDO · Power rankings · Every team · How the replays work

Other seasons

2025-26