luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 NHL season · Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026

NHL week 3: who deserved to win

6 of 50 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Oilers beat the Kings 4–1 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 50 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Oilers W 4–1 @ Kings Oct 13, 2026 32% +68
2 Blackhawks W 5–3 vs Penguins Oct 13, 2026 33% +67
3 Capitals W 4–2 vs Devils Oct 17, 2026 37% +63
4 Kraken W 3–2 SO @ Flyers Oct 13, 2026 39% +61
5 Stars W 3–2 SO @ Avalanche Oct 14, 2026 40% +60
6 Flames W 3–2 vs Hurricanes Oct 18, 2026 40% +60
7 Islanders W 4–1 @ Maple Leafs Oct 17, 2026 40% +60
8 Golden Knights W 5–2 @ Predators Oct 13, 2026 41% +59
9 Red Wings W 4–3 SO vs Sharks Oct 17, 2026 41% +59
10 Blue Jackets W 1–0 OT vs Rangers Oct 17, 2026 42% +58
11 Sabres W 5–4 OT @ Maple Leafs Oct 15, 2026 43% +57
12 Blackhawks W 4–3 OT vs Jets Oct 15, 2026 44% +56
13 Oilers W 6–2 @ Mammoth Oct 17, 2026 45% +55
14 Senators W 4–1 @ Devils Oct 12, 2026 45% +55
15 Flyers W 3–1 vs Senators Oct 17, 2026 45% +55
16 Golden Knights W 6–2 vs Penguins Oct 17, 2026 46% +54
17 Capitals W 5–4 vs Canadiens Oct 14, 2026 46% +54
18 Bruins W 4–1 @ Kings Oct 17, 2026 46% +54
19 Bruins W 4–2 @ Ducks Oct 16, 2026 46% +54
20 Avalanche W 3–2 @ Stars Oct 13, 2026 48% +52
21 Hurricanes W 3–2 @ Jets Oct 17, 2026 50% +50
22 Sabres W 5–3 vs Panthers Oct 12, 2026 50% +50
23 Flames W 4–2 @ Ducks Oct 13, 2026 50% +50
24 Sharks W 3–2 SO @ Predators Oct 15, 2026 53% +47
25 Mammoth W 5–4 vs Maple Leafs Oct 13, 2026 53% +47
26 Lightning W 4–3 OT vs Kraken Oct 15, 2026 55% +45
27 Avalanche W 5–2 vs Penguins Oct 16, 2026 55% +45
28 Jets W 5–2 vs Wild Oct 13, 2026 55% +45
29 Canadiens W 4–3 SO vs Sabres Oct 13, 2026 56% +44
30 Wild W 4–2 vs Golden Knights Oct 12, 2026 56% +44
31 Rangers W 4–1 vs Lightning Oct 13, 2026 57% +43
32 Islanders W 3–2 vs Canucks Oct 13, 2026 58% +42
33 Stars W 4–0 @ Blackhawks Oct 17, 2026 59% +41
34 Bruins W 6–3 @ Sharks Oct 13, 2026 59% +41
35 Senators W 2–1 SO vs Islanders Oct 15, 2026 59% +41
36 Hurricanes W 4–2 vs Capitals Oct 13, 2026 60% +40
37 Red Wings W 2–1 vs Flyers Oct 15, 2026 60% +40
38 Golden Knights W 6–2 vs Flames Oct 15, 2026 60% +40
39 Panthers W 7–3 @ Blue Jackets Oct 13, 2026 61% +39
40 Panthers W 3–2 OT vs Canucks Oct 15, 2026 63% +37
41 Canadiens W 4–3 OT vs Sabres Oct 17, 2026 64% +36
42 Wild W 5–4 vs Blues Oct 15, 2026 64% +36
43 Predators W 5–2 vs Blues Oct 17, 2026 64% +36
44 Devils W 7–1 vs Rangers Oct 15, 2026 66% +34
45 Mammoth W 4–2 @ Oilers Oct 15, 2026 66% +34
46 Devils W 5–4 OT @ Red Wings Oct 13, 2026 68% +32
47 Lightning W 4–2 vs Canucks Oct 17, 2026 71% +29
48 Blues W 7–2 @ Senators Oct 13, 2026 75% +25
49 Panthers W 8–3 vs Kraken Oct 17, 2026 76% +24
50 Wild W 2–1 vs Blue Jackets Oct 18, 2026 82% +18
51 Blue Jackets L 1–2 @ Wild Oct 18, 2026 18% −18
52 Kraken L 3–8 @ Panthers Oct 17, 2026 24% −24
53 Senators L 2–7 vs Blues Oct 13, 2026 25% −25
54 Canucks L 2–4 @ Lightning Oct 17, 2026 29% −29
55 Red Wings L 4–5 OT vs Devils Oct 13, 2026 32% −32
56 Oilers L 2–4 vs Mammoth Oct 15, 2026 34% −34
57 Rangers L 1–7 @ Devils Oct 15, 2026 34% −34
58 Blues L 2–5 @ Predators Oct 17, 2026 36% −36
59 Blues L 4–5 @ Wild Oct 15, 2026 36% −36
60 Sabres L 3–4 OT @ Canadiens Oct 17, 2026 36% −36
61 Canucks L 2–3 OT @ Panthers Oct 15, 2026 37% −37
62 Blue Jackets L 3–7 vs Panthers Oct 13, 2026 39% −39
63 Flames L 2–6 @ Golden Knights Oct 15, 2026 40% −40
64 Flyers L 1–2 @ Red Wings Oct 15, 2026 40% −40
65 Capitals L 2–4 @ Hurricanes Oct 13, 2026 40% −40
66 Islanders L 1–2 SO @ Senators Oct 15, 2026 41% −41
67 Sharks L 3–6 vs Bruins Oct 13, 2026 41% −41
68 Blackhawks L 0–4 vs Stars Oct 17, 2026 41% −41
69 Canucks L 2–3 @ Islanders Oct 13, 2026 42% −42
70 Lightning L 1–4 @ Rangers Oct 13, 2026 43% −43
71 Golden Knights L 2–4 @ Wild Oct 12, 2026 44% −44
72 Sabres L 3–4 SO @ Canadiens Oct 13, 2026 44% −44
73 Wild L 2–5 @ Jets Oct 13, 2026 45% −45
74 Penguins L 2–5 @ Avalanche Oct 16, 2026 45% −45
75 Kraken L 3–4 OT @ Lightning Oct 15, 2026 45% −45
76 Maple Leafs L 4–5 @ Mammoth Oct 13, 2026 47% −47
77 Predators L 2–3 SO vs Sharks Oct 15, 2026 47% −47
78 Ducks L 2–4 vs Flames Oct 13, 2026 50% −50
79 Panthers L 3–5 @ Sabres Oct 12, 2026 50% −50
80 Jets L 2–3 vs Hurricanes Oct 17, 2026 50% −50
81 Stars L 2–3 vs Avalanche Oct 13, 2026 52% −52
82 Ducks L 2–4 vs Bruins Oct 16, 2026 54% −54
83 Kings L 1–4 vs Bruins Oct 17, 2026 54% −54
84 Canadiens L 4–5 @ Capitals Oct 14, 2026 54% −54
85 Penguins L 2–6 @ Golden Knights Oct 17, 2026 54% −54
86 Senators L 1–3 @ Flyers Oct 17, 2026 55% −55
87 Devils L 1–4 vs Senators Oct 12, 2026 55% −55
88 Mammoth L 2–6 vs Oilers Oct 17, 2026 55% −55
89 Jets L 3–4 OT @ Blackhawks Oct 15, 2026 56% −56
90 Maple Leafs L 4–5 OT vs Sabres Oct 15, 2026 57% −57
91 Rangers L 0–1 OT @ Blue Jackets Oct 17, 2026 58% −58
92 Sharks L 3–4 SO @ Red Wings Oct 17, 2026 59% −59
93 Predators L 2–5 vs Golden Knights Oct 13, 2026 59% −59
94 Maple Leafs L 1–4 vs Islanders Oct 17, 2026 60% −60
95 Hurricanes L 2–3 @ Flames Oct 18, 2026 60% −60
96 Avalanche L 2–3 SO vs Stars Oct 14, 2026 60% −60
97 Flyers L 2–3 SO vs Kraken Oct 13, 2026 61% −61
98 Devils L 2–4 @ Capitals Oct 17, 2026 63% −63
99 Penguins L 3–5 @ Blackhawks Oct 13, 2026 67% −67
100 Kings L 1–4 vs Oilers Oct 13, 2026 68% −68