2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blues at Senators, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blues beat the Senators 7–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 6:40 left): Jake Neighbours scored on a wrist shot from 43 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Blues.
Final
 St. Louis Blues | 7 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Blues lucky · −25 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blues win 7, Senators win 3.
- 1 STL 8 OTT 3
- 2 STL 4 OTT 0
- 3 STL 4 OTT 1
- 4 STL 3 OTT 0
- 5 STL 2 OTT 0
- 6 STL 6 OTT 5
- 7 STL 1 OTT 0
- 8 STL 4 OTT 5
- 9 STL 1 OTT 2
- 10 STL 0 OTT 2
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.6, 60% to win. The Blues won by 5, a result we gave 40%. The final margin was 5.6 goals from ours; 1% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blues win | 40.3% |
| Senators win | 59.7% |
| Middle 50%: Blues by 1 to Senators by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blues by 4 to Senators by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blues by 4 to Senators by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 22.2% |
| Exactly Blues by 1 | 18.2% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 14.9% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Blues by 3 | 8.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Blues win 75% of them, Senators 25%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blues by 3+ | 45.9% |
| Blues by 2 | 12.4% |
| Blues by 1 | 16.5% |
| Senators by 1 | 17.1% |
| Senators by 2 | 4.5% |
| Senators by 3+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blues | 41 | 7 | 3.66 | +3.34 |
 Senators | 26 | 2 | 1.61 | +0.39 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:45 | Holding on the Senators (Jordan Spence): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P1 6:32 | Holding on the Blues (Cam Fowler): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 2:34 | High sticking on the Blues (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 16:29 | Tripping on the Blues (Colton Parayko): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 5:54 | Holding on the Senators (Hoyt Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% STL |
| P3 5:08 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Warren Foegele): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% STL |
| P3 3:19 | Hooking on the Blues (Philip Broberg): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% OTT |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 6:32 | Holding on the Blues (Cam Fowler): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 5:32 | Pius Suter scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 15% chance | +15% STL | – |
| 3 | P1 2:34 | High sticking on the Blues (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 4 | P2 16:29 | Tripping on the Blues (Colton Parayko): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 5 | P2 6:40 | Jake Neighbours scored on a wrist shot from 43 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% STL | – |
| 6 | P2 2:08 | Claude Giroux scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% OTT | – |
| 7 | P2 1:35 | Mason McTavish scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% STL | – |
| 8 | P3 12:06 | Pius Suter scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 5% chance | +4% STL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blues 97% · Senators 3%
- Final margin
- Blues by 5
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Blues
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blues by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Blues 75% · Senators 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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