2026-27 regular season · October 12, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Devils, Oct 12, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Devils 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Senators win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Senators.
The biggest swing (P2, 19:51 left): Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 15 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Senators.
Final
 Ottawa Senators | 4 |
|---|---|
 New Jersey Devils | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Senators lucky · −55 Devils
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 4, Devils win 6.
- 1 OTT 3 NJD 0
- 2 OTT 3 NJD 1
- 3 OTT 3 NJD 2
- 4 OTT 4 NJD 3
- 5 OTT 1 NJD 2
- 6 OTT 1 NJD 2
- 7 OTT 2 NJD 3
- 8 OTT 2 NJD 4
- 9 OTT 0 NJD 3
- 10 OTT 1 NJD 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Devils by 0.1, 51% to win. The Senators won by 3, a result we gave 49%. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Senators win | 49.0% |
| Devils win | 51.0% |
| Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Devils by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Devils by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Senators by 4 to Devils by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Devils by 1 | 21.0% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 20.2% |
| Exactly Devils by 3 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 12, 4:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Senators win 45% of them, Devils 55%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 13.8% |
| Senators by 2 | 9.1% |
| Senators by 1 | 22.0% |
| Devils by 1 | 22.5% |
| Devils by 2 | 11.4% |
| Devils by 3+ | 21.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 28 | 3 | 1.90 | +1.10 |
 Devils | 49 | 1 | 2.91 | −1.91 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:24 | Interference on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 9:59 | Boarding on the Devils (Anthony Mantha): 5 minutes on the power play | +10% OTT |
| P1 3:02 | Cross checking on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P1 2:08 | Interference on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 14:24 | Slashing on the Devils (Amadeus Lombardi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 11:44 | Hooking on the Devils (Luke Evangelista): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 4:22 | Tripping on the Senators (Carter Yakemchuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NJD |
| P3 8:02 | A Devils goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +2% OTT |
When it happened
Devils’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:59 | Boarding on the Devils (Anthony Mantha): 5 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 3:10 | Jesper Boqvist’s slap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +4% OTT | – |
| 3 | P1 3:02 | Cross checking on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NJD | – |
| 4 | P1 2:08 | Interference on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 5 | P2 19:51 | Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 12% chance | +17% OTT | – |
| 6 | P2 14:24 | Slashing on the Devils (Amadeus Lombardi): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 7 | P2 11:44 | Hooking on the Devils (Luke Evangelista): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 8 | P2 11:20 | Stephen Halliday scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 76% · Devils 24%
- Final margin
- Senators by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 45% · Devils 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 3, 2026-27
- Penguins at Blackhawks Oct 13, 2026 · CHI 5–3 · replay 33% for the winner
- Devils at Capitals Oct 17, 2026 · WSH 4–2 · replay 37% for the winner
- Kraken at Flyers Oct 13, 2026 · SEA 3–2 SO · replay 39% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Flames Oct 18, 2026 · CGY 3–2 · replay 40% for the winner
- Islanders at Maple Leafs Oct 17, 2026 · NYI 4–1 · replay 40% for the winner
- Sharks at Red Wings Oct 17, 2026 · DET 4–3 SO · replay 41% for the winner
- Rangers at Blue Jackets Oct 17, 2026 · CBJ 1–0 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Sabres at Maple Leafs Oct 15, 2026 · BUF 5–4 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Senators at Flyers Oct 17, 2026 · PHI 3–1 · replay 45% for the winner
- Penguins at Golden Knights Oct 17, 2026 · VGK 6–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Canadiens at Capitals Oct 14, 2026 · WSH 5–4 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bruins at Kings Oct 17, 2026 · BOS 4–1 · replay 46% for the winner