2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Flyers, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Flyers 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Flyers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Kraken won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Kraken.
Final (SO)
 Seattle Kraken | 3 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Kraken very lucky · −61 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 4, Flyers win 6.
- 1 SEA 4 PHI 1
- 2 SEA 6 PHI 4
- 3 SEA 4 PHI 3
- 4 SEA 3 PHI 2
- 5 SEA 2 PHI 3
- 6 SEA 2 PHI 3
- 7 SEA 1 PHI 3
- 8 SEA 1 PHI 3
- 9 SEA 1 PHI 4
- 10 SEA 3 PHI 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Kraken by 0.1, 51% to win. The Kraken won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kraken win | 51.4% |
| Flyers win | 48.6% |
| Middle 50%: Kraken by 2 to Flyers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Kraken by 4 to Flyers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Kraken by 5 to Flyers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 11.9% |
| Exactly Flyers by 3 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Kraken by 2 | 10.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kraken win 39% of them, Flyers 61%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 10.0% |
| Kraken by 2 | 7.6% |
| Kraken by 1 | 21.2% |
| Flyers by 1 | 21.7% |
| Flyers by 2 | 13.1% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 26.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 35 | 2 | 2.02 | −0.02 |
 Flyers | 37 | 2 | 3.02 | −1.02 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:25 | Tripping on the Flyers (Jack Studnicka): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P1 3:08 | Slashing on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 10:28 | Hooking on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PHI |
| P2 6:00 | Slashing on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SEA |
| P2 4:38 | Tripping on the Flyers (Noah Cates): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SEA |
| P3 13:32 | Interference on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SEA |
| P3 13:18 | Holding the stick on the Kraken (Bobby McMann): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% PHI |
| OT 2:39 | Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% SEA |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:03 | Bobby McMann scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 13% chance | +15% SEA | – |
| 2 | P2 11:06 | Ville Ottavainen scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% SEA | – |
| 3 | P3 13:53 | Christian Dvorak scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chance | +14% PHI | – |
| 4 | P3 13:18 | Holding the stick on the Kraken (Bobby McMann): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% PHI | – |
| 5 | P3 12:40 | Trevor Zegras scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 23% chance | +23% PHI | – |
| 6 | P3 12:31 | Chandler Stephenson’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +6% PHI | – |
| 7 | SO | The game turned hereThe Kraken won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +49% SEA | – |
| 8 | OT 2:39 | Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +12% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 32% · Flyers 68%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flyers by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 39% · Flyers 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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