2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Kings, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Kings 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Kings: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (P1, 12:44 left): Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 16 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 4 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Oilers very lucky · −68 Kings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 3, Kings win 7.
- 1 EDM 3 LAK 1
- 2 EDM 1 LAK 0
- 3 EDM 3 LAK 2
- 4 EDM 1 LAK 2
- 5 EDM 0 LAK 1
- 6 EDM 1 LAK 3
- 7 EDM 2 LAK 5
- 8 EDM 0 LAK 3
- 9 EDM 0 LAK 3
- 10 EDM 1 LAK 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Oilers won by 3. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oilers win | 49.2% |
| Kings win | 50.8% |
| Middle 50%: Oilers by 2 to Kings by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Oilers by 4 to Kings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Oilers by 4 to Kings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Kings by 1 | 21.0% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 20.2% |
| Exactly Kings by 3 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 9:23 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Oilers win 32% of them, Kings 68%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 5.5% |
| Oilers by 2 | 6.0% |
| Oilers by 1 | 20.3% |
| Kings by 1 | 20.3% |
| Kings by 2 | 13.4% |
| Kings by 3+ | 34.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 25 | 3 | 1.37 | +1.63 |
 Kings | 59 | 1 | 3.18 | −2.18 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:16 | Tripping on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P1 3:38 | Hooking on the Oilers (Filip Hallander): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% LAK |
| P2 16:26 | Holding on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% LAK |
| P2 1:36 | Holding on the Oilers (Owen Michaels): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P3 14:52 | High sticking on the Kings (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% EDM |
| P3 12:07 | Interference on the Kings (Brandt Clarke): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
| P3 11:51 | Tripping on the Oilers (Connor McDavid): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% LAK |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:44 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 7% chance | +16% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 12:16 | Tripping on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 11:44 | Vasily Podkolzin scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance | +12% EDM | – |
| 4 | P1 4:12 | Connor McDavid scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance | +9% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 2:31 | Brandt Clarke scored on a wrist shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance | +8% LAK | – |
| 6 | P2 1:38 | Corey Perry’s backhand shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +3% EDM | – |
| 7 | P2 1:36 | Holding on the Oilers (Owen Michaels): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% LAK | – |
| 8 | P2 0:04 | Erik Haula’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +3% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 44% · Kings 56%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 3.4 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 32% · Kings 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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