Penguins lucky 5 
Kings unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Penguins win 33% of replays 2026-27 NHL season · Nov 2, 2026 – Nov 8, 2026
NHL week 6: who deserved to win
1 of 51 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Penguins beat the Kings 5–2 in a game they win 33% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 51 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Penguins lucky 5 Kings unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Penguins win 33% of replays 
Wild 4 
Flyers 2 Coin flip · Wild win 40% of replays 
Flames 2 
Sharks 1 Coin flip · Flames win 42% of replays 
Golden Knights 4 
Sabres 1 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 42% of replays 
Hurricanes 1 
Predators 4 Coin flip · Predators win 43% of replays 
Canadiens 4 
Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 43% of replays Hurricanes 5 
Islanders 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 45% of replays 
Mammoth 2 
Senators 4 Coin flip · Senators win 45% of replays Golden Knights 3 Penguins 2 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 46% of replays 
Red Wings 5 
Panthers 3 Coin flip · Red Wings win 49% of replays Golden Knights 2 Red Wings 1 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 50% of replays 
Ducks 5 
Canucks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 51% of replays Flames 1 
Kraken 2 Coin flip · Kraken win 52% of replays 
Blues 1 Predators 3 Coin flip · Predators win 52% of replays Ducks 5 
Oilers 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 52% of replays Flyers 3 Flames 4 Coin flip · Flames win 52% of replays 
Stars 1 
Blue Jackets 2 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 52% of replays 
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 0 Coin flip · Devils win 54% of replays 
Bruins 6 Penguins 2 Coin flip · Bruins win 55% of replays Ducks 5 Flames 3 Coin flip · Ducks win 56% of replays 
Avalanche 2 Blue Jackets 7 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 56% of replays Flyers 2 
Rangers 3 Coin flip · Rangers win 56% of replays Predators 3 Avalanche 2 Coin flip · Predators win 57% of replays Devils 5 Islanders 4 Coin flip · Devils win 57% of replays Panthers 1 Bruins 4 Coin flip · Bruins win 57% of replays Avalanche 5 
Blackhawks 2 Coin flip · Avalanche win 58% of replays Golden Knights 2 Bruins 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 58% of replays Blues 4 Devils 5 Replays agree · Devils win 60% of replays Penguins 2 Ducks 5 Replays agree · Ducks win 61% of replays Rangers 4 Kraken 3 Replays agree · Rangers win 61% of replays Canucks 2 Oilers 4 Replays agree · Oilers win 61% of replays Blues 1 Rangers 3 Replays agree · Rangers win 62% of replays Panthers 3 
Capitals 4 Replays agree · Capitals win 62% of replays Stars 6 Capitals 5 Replays agree · Stars win 62% of replays 
Jets 5 Canadiens 4 Replays agree · Jets win 63% of replays Senators 2 Sabres 1 Replays agree · Senators win 63% of replays Mammoth 4 Canadiens 5 Replays agree · Canadiens win 63% of replays Blue Jackets 2 Sabres 5 Replays agree · Sabres win 65% of replays Red Wings 0 Avalanche 4 Replays agree · Avalanche win 66% of replays Sharks 2 Kings 7 Replays agree · Kings win 67% of replays Canucks 2 Jets 6 Replays agree · Jets win 68% of replays Blackhawks 1 
Lightning 4 Replays agree · Lightning win 70% of replays Blackhawks 3 Panthers 5 Replays agree · Panthers win 72% of replays Oilers 3 Devils 4 Replays agree · Devils win 73% of replays Sharks 3 Stars 4 Replays agree · Stars win 73% of replays Red Wings 2 Lightning 4 Replays agree · Lightning win 73% of replays Sharks 1 Wild 4 Replays agree · Wild win 74% of replays Lightning 3 Jets 4 Replays agree · Jets win 74% of replays Lightning 4 Wild 3 Replays agree · Lightning win 76% of replays Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 9 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 77% of replays Mammoth 3 Maple Leafs 2 Replays agree · Mammoth win 79% of replays Week 6 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penguins | W 5–2 @ Kings Nov 7, 2026 | 33% | +67 |
| 2 | Wild | W 4–2 @ Flyers Nov 3, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 3 | Flames | W 2–1 @ Sharks Nov 2, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 4 | Golden Knights | W 4–1 @ Sabres Nov 8, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 5 | Predators | W 4–1 vs Hurricanes Nov 3, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 6 | Canadiens | W 4–2 @ Maple Leafs Nov 7, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 7 | Hurricanes | W 5–3 @ Islanders Nov 5, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 8 | Senators | W 4–2 vs Mammoth Nov 7, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 9 | Golden Knights | W 3–2 @ Penguins Nov 3, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 10 | Red Wings | W 5–3 @ Panthers Nov 2, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 11 | Golden Knights | W 2–1 @ Red Wings Nov 5, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 12 | Ducks | W 5–4 @ Canucks Nov 3, 2026 | 51% | +49 |
| 13 | Kraken | W 2–1 OT vs Flames Nov 4, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 14 | Predators | W 3–1 vs Blues Nov 7, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 15 | Ducks | W 5–4 @ Oilers Nov 5, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 16 | Flames | W 4–3 OT vs Flyers Nov 8, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 17 | Blue Jackets | W 2–1 SO vs Stars Nov 5, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 18 | Devils | W 4–0 @ Maple Leafs Nov 8, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 19 | Bruins | W 6–2 @ Penguins Nov 5, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 20 | Ducks | W 5–3 @ Flames Nov 6, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 21 | Blue Jackets | W 7–2 vs Avalanche Nov 3, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 22 | Rangers | W 3–2 vs Flyers Nov 5, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 23 | Predators | W 3–2 OT @ Avalanche Nov 5, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 24 | Devils | W 5–4 OT @ Islanders Nov 7, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 25 | Bruins | W 4–1 vs Panthers Nov 8, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 26 | Avalanche | W 5–2 @ Blackhawks Nov 2, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 27 | Bruins | W 3–2 SO vs Golden Knights Nov 2, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 28 | Devils | W 5–4 OT vs Blues Nov 5, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 29 | Ducks | W 5–2 vs Penguins Nov 8, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 30 | Rangers | W 4–3 @ Kraken Nov 7, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 31 | Oilers | W 4–2 vs Canucks Nov 7, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 32 | Rangers | W 3–1 vs Blues Nov 3, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 33 | Capitals | W 4–3 vs Panthers Nov 7, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 34 | Stars | W 6–5 @ Capitals Nov 3, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 35 | Jets | W 5–4 OT @ Canadiens Nov 3, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 36 | Senators | W 2–1 @ Sabres Nov 4, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 37 | Canadiens | W 5–4 OT vs Mammoth Nov 5, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 38 | Sabres | W 5–2 vs Blue Jackets Nov 6, 2026 | 65% | +35 |
| 39 | Avalanche | W 4–0 vs Red Wings Nov 7, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 40 | Kings | W 7–2 vs Sharks Nov 4, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 41 | Jets | W 6–2 vs Canucks Nov 5, 2026 | 68% | +32 |
| 42 | Lightning | W 4–1 vs Blackhawks Nov 5, 2026 | 70% | +30 |
| 43 | Panthers | W 5–3 vs Blackhawks Nov 4, 2026 | 72% | +28 |
| 44 | Devils | W 4–3 SO vs Oilers Nov 3, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 45 | Stars | W 4–3 vs Sharks Nov 7, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 46 | Lightning | W 4–2 vs Red Wings Nov 3, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 47 | Wild | W 4–1 vs Sharks Nov 6, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 48 | Jets | W 4–3 vs Lightning Nov 8, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 49 | Lightning | W 4–3 OT @ Wild Nov 7, 2026 | 76% | +24 |
| 50 | Hurricanes | W 9–2 vs Blackhawks Nov 7, 2026 | 77% | +23 |
| 51 | Mammoth | W 3–2 @ Maple Leafs Nov 3, 2026 | 79% | +21 |
| 52 | Maple Leafs | L 2–3 vs Mammoth Nov 3, 2026 | 21% | −21 |
| 53 | Blackhawks | L 2–9 @ Hurricanes Nov 7, 2026 | 23% | −23 |
| 54 | Wild | L 3–4 OT vs Lightning Nov 7, 2026 | 24% | −24 |
| 55 | Lightning | L 3–4 @ Jets Nov 8, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 56 | Sharks | L 1–4 @ Wild Nov 6, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 57 | Red Wings | L 2–4 @ Lightning Nov 3, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 58 | Sharks | L 3–4 @ Stars Nov 7, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 59 | Oilers | L 3–4 SO @ Devils Nov 3, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 60 | Blackhawks | L 3–5 @ Panthers Nov 4, 2026 | 28% | −28 |
| 61 | Blackhawks | L 1–4 @ Lightning Nov 5, 2026 | 30% | −30 |
| 62 | Canucks | L 2–6 @ Jets Nov 5, 2026 | 32% | −32 |
| 63 | Sharks | L 2–7 @ Kings Nov 4, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 64 | Red Wings | L 0–4 @ Avalanche Nov 7, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 65 | Blue Jackets | L 2–5 @ Sabres Nov 6, 2026 | 35% | −35 |
| 66 | Mammoth | L 4–5 OT @ Canadiens Nov 5, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 67 | Sabres | L 1–2 vs Senators Nov 4, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 68 | Canadiens | L 4–5 OT vs Jets Nov 3, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 69 | Capitals | L 5–6 vs Stars Nov 3, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 70 | Panthers | L 3–4 @ Capitals Nov 7, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 71 | Blues | L 1–3 @ Rangers Nov 3, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 72 | Canucks | L 2–4 @ Oilers Nov 7, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 73 | Kraken | L 3–4 vs Rangers Nov 7, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 74 | Penguins | L 2–5 @ Ducks Nov 8, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 75 | Blues | L 4–5 OT @ Devils Nov 5, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 76 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 SO @ Bruins Nov 2, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 77 | Blackhawks | L 2–5 vs Avalanche Nov 2, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 78 | Panthers | L 1–4 @ Bruins Nov 8, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 79 | Islanders | L 4–5 OT vs Devils Nov 7, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 80 | Avalanche | L 2–3 OT vs Predators Nov 5, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 81 | Flyers | L 2–3 @ Rangers Nov 5, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 82 | Avalanche | L 2–7 @ Blue Jackets Nov 3, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 83 | Flames | L 3–5 vs Ducks Nov 6, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 84 | Penguins | L 2–6 vs Bruins Nov 5, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 85 | Maple Leafs | L 0–4 vs Devils Nov 8, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 86 | Stars | L 1–2 SO @ Blue Jackets Nov 5, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 87 | Flyers | L 3–4 OT @ Flames Nov 8, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 88 | Oilers | L 4–5 vs Ducks Nov 5, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 89 | Blues | L 1–3 @ Predators Nov 7, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 90 | Flames | L 1–2 OT @ Kraken Nov 4, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 91 | Canucks | L 4–5 vs Ducks Nov 3, 2026 | 49% | −49 |
| 92 | Red Wings | L 1–2 vs Golden Knights Nov 5, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 93 | Panthers | L 3–5 vs Red Wings Nov 2, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 94 | Penguins | L 2–3 vs Golden Knights Nov 3, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 95 | Mammoth | L 2–4 @ Senators Nov 7, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 96 | Islanders | L 3–5 vs Hurricanes Nov 5, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 97 | Maple Leafs | L 2–4 vs Canadiens Nov 7, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 98 | Hurricanes | L 1–4 @ Predators Nov 3, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 99 | Sharks | L 1–2 vs Flames Nov 2, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 100 | Sabres | L 1–4 vs Golden Knights Nov 8, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 101 | Flyers | L 2–4 vs Wild Nov 3, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 102 | Kings | L 2–5 vs Penguins Nov 7, 2026 | 67% | −67 |