2026-27 regular season · November 4, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flames at Kraken, Nov 4, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Flames 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The biggest swing (OT): the Kraken won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Kraken.
Final (OT)
 Calgary Flames | 1 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Kraken | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Kraken lucky · −48 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flames win 5, Kraken win 5.
- 1 CGY 5 SEA 2
- 2 CGY 5 SEA 2
- 3 CGY 4 SEA 2
- 4 CGY 3 SEA 2
- 5 CGY 3 SEA 2
- 6 CGY 2 SEA 3
- 7 CGY 3 SEA 4
- 8 CGY 2 SEA 4
- 9 CGY 2 SEA 5
- 10 CGY 0 SEA 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Kraken by 0.5, 59% to win. The Kraken won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.5 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flames win | 41.0% |
| Kraken win | 59.0% |
| Middle 50%: Flames by 1 to Kraken by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Flames by 4 to Kraken by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Flames by 4 to Kraken by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 22.1% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 18.3% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 14.6% |
| Exactly Kraken by 2 | 11.1% |
| Exactly Flames by 3 | 8.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Nov 4, 9:45 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Flames win 48% of them, Kraken 52%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flames by 3+ | 17.2% |
| Flames by 2 | 9.4% |
| Flames by 1 | 21.8% |
| Kraken by 1 | 22.1% |
| Kraken by 2 | 10.1% |
| Kraken by 3+ | 19.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flames | 49 | 1 | 2.62 | −1.62 |
 Kraken | 41 | 1 | 2.67 | −1.67 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 16:05 | Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Martin Pospisil): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 14:27 | Too many men on the ice on the Kraken (SEA): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P3 16:33 | Hooking on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% SEA |
| P3 9:11 | Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Martin Pospisil): 2 minutes on the power play | +8% SEA |
When it happened
Kraken’ chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:15 | Yegor Sharangovich scored on a tip from 24 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% CGY | – |
| 2 | P1 3:42 | Bobby McMann’s wrist shot from 2 feet was savedShooting · 47% chance | +9% CGY | – |
| 3 | P1 3:41 | Bobby McMann’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance | +6% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 6:51 | Berkly Catton scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 4% chance | +22% SEA | – |
| 5 | P3 16:33 | Hooking on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% SEA | – |
| 6 | P3 12:02 | Ryan Strome’s slap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +5% SEA | – |
| 7 | P3 9:11 | Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Martin Pospisil): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% SEA | – |
| 8 | OT | The Kraken won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flames 49% · Kraken 51%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kraken by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Flames 48% · Kraken 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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