2026-27 regular season · November 2, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Golden Knights at Bruins, Nov 2, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Golden Knights 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bruins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Bruins.
The biggest swing (SO): the Bruins won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final (SO)
 Vegas Golden Knights | 2 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Bruins lucky · −42 Golden Knights
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Golden Knights win 4, Bruins win 6.
- 1 VGK 3 BOS 0
- 2 VGK 3 BOS 1
- 3 VGK 1 BOS 0
- 4 VGK 4 BOS 3
- 5 VGK 2 BOS 3
- 6 VGK 2 BOS 3
- 7 VGK 2 BOS 4
- 8 VGK 1 BOS 4
- 9 VGK 0 BOS 3
- 10 VGK 0 BOS 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Golden Knights by 0.3, 54% to win. The Bruins won by 1, a result we gave 46%. The final margin was 1.3 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Golden Knights win | 54.4% |
| Bruins win | 45.6% |
| Middle 50%: Golden Knights by 2 to Bruins by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Golden Knights by 4 to Bruins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Golden Knights by 5 to Bruins by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Golden Knights by 1 | 21.1% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Golden Knights by 3 | 12.9% |
| Exactly Golden Knights by 2 | 11.0% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 10.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Nov 2, 3:43 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Golden Knights win 42% of them, Bruins 58%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Golden Knights by 3+ | 13.3% |
| Golden Knights by 2 | 8.3% |
| Golden Knights by 1 | 20.0% |
| Bruins by 1 | 23.0% |
| Bruins by 2 | 10.5% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 24.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Golden Knights | 33 | 2 | 2.47 | −0.47 |
 Bruins | 40 | 2 | 2.79 | −0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:26 | Tripping on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BOS |
| P1 4:20 | Interference on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P2 17:11 | Elbowing on the Golden Knights (Braeden Bowman): 5 minutes on the power play | +10% BOS |
| P2 5:10 | Holding on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VGK |
| P2 5:02 | Abuse of officials on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P3 6:12 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Carter Hart): 2 minutes on the power play | +8% BOS |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:37 | James Hagens scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance | +13% BOS | – |
| 2 | P2 17:11 | Elbowing on the Golden Knights (Braeden Bowman): 5 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% BOS | – |
| 3 | P2 16:37 | Morgan Geekie scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 21% chance | +11% BOS | – |
| 4 | P2 5:02 | Mark Stone scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 22% chanceAbuse of officials on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +16% VGK | – |
| 5 | P3 12:37 | Trevor Connelly scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 4% chance | +28% VGK | – |
| 6 | P3 6:12 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Carter Hart): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% BOS | – |
| 7 | P3 4:15 | Jonathan Aspirot’s wrist shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +7% VGK | – |
| 8 | SO | The Bruins won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Golden Knights 44% · Bruins 56%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Golden Knights 42% · Bruins 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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