luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · November 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Senators, Nov 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Mammoth 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Senators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (P3, 2:18 left): Nick Cousins scored on a tip from 8 feet, worth 38 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Utah Mammoth 2
Ottawa Senators 4

November 7, 2026 · Canadian Tire Centre

Our prediction before puck drop: Senators by 0.2

Luck index +55 Senators lucky · −55 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 5, Senators win 5.

  1. 1 UTA 5 OTT 1
  2. 2 UTA 4 OTT 1
  3. 3 UTA 3 OTT 1
  4. 4 UTA 4 OTT 3
  5. 5 UTA 4 OTT 3
  6. 6 UTA 2 OTT 3
  7. 7 UTA 2 OTT 3
  8. 8 UTA 3 OTT 4
  9. 9 UTA 2 OTT 4
  10. 10 UTA 4 OTT 7

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Senators by 0.2, 54% to win. The Senators won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.8 goals from ours; 49% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Mammoth win46.1%
Senators win53.9%
Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Senators by 250%
Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Senators by 490%
Middle 95%: Mammoth by 4 to Senators by 595%
Exactly Senators by 121.5%
Exactly Mammoth by 119.6%
Exactly Senators by 312.9%
Exactly Mammoth by 310.3%
Exactly Senators by 210.3%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Nov 7, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Mammoth win 55% of them, Senators 45%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+23.6%
Mammoth by 211.1%
Mammoth by 120.0%
Senators by 122.1%
Senators by 28.9%
Senators by 3+14.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Senators by 2, without the luck Senators by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth4923.09−1.09
Senators4332.39+0.61

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:33 High sticking on the Mammoth (Logan Cooley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 3:39 Slashing on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 3:16 Tripping on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 8:53 Interference on the Senators (Sammy Blais): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:33 Fabian Zetterlund scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% OTT –
2 P1 10:03 Clayton Keller scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% UTA –
3 P3 13:31 Michael Amadio scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +26% OTT –
4 P3 10:07 Barrett Hayton scored on a tip from 15 feetShooting · 5% chance +30% UTA –
5 P3 5:27 Drake Batherson’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +7% UTA –
6 P3 4:24 Liam O'Brien’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +9% OTT –
7 P3 3:37 Vincent Trocheck’s snap shot from 36 feet was savedShooting · 5% chanceLawson Crouse missed the net with a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 29% chance +14% OTT –
8 P3 2:18 Nick Cousins scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance +38% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 33% · Senators 67%

Final margin
Senators by 2
Luck in goals
1.4 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 55% · Senators 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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