luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · November 3, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Wild at Flyers, Nov 3, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Wild beat the Flyers 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Wild win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Wild.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:54 left): Matt Boldy scored on a snap shot from 41 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Wild.

Final

Minnesota Wild 4
Philadelphia Flyers 2

November 3, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Wild by 0.4

Luck index +60 Wild lucky · −60 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wild win 4, Flyers win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 5 PHI 2
  2. 2 MIN 2 PHI 0
  3. 3 MIN 4 PHI 3
  4. 4 MIN 4 PHI 3
  5. 5 MIN 5 PHI 6
  6. 6 MIN 3 PHI 4
  7. 7 MIN 2 PHI 4
  8. 8 MIN 3 PHI 6
  9. 9 MIN 0 PHI 3
  10. 10 MIN 0 PHI 4

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Wild by 0.4, 57% to win. The Wild won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Wild win57.2%
Flyers win42.8%
Middle 50%: Wild by 2 to Flyers by 150%
Middle 90%: Wild by 4 to Flyers by 490%
Middle 95%: Wild by 5 to Flyers by 495%
Exactly Wild by 121.4%
Exactly Flyers by 119.3%
Exactly Wild by 313.8%
Exactly Wild by 211.5%
Exactly Flyers by 39.5%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Nov 3, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wild win 40% of them, Flyers 60%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wild by 3+11.8%
Wild by 27.7%
Wild by 120.6%
Flyers by 123.0%
Flyers by 211.5%
Flyers by 3+25.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 goals to the Wild: the final margin was Wild by 2, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Wild3332.15+0.85
Flyers4723.15−1.15

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:42 Hooking on the Flyers (Denver Barkey): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MIN
P1 5:18 Hooking on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 12:36 Cross checking on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +2% MIN
P2 10:18 Holding on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +2% MIN
P3 19:10 Holding on the Wild (Jonas Brodin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 16:33 Cross checking on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Wild were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:54 Matt Boldy scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% MIN –
2 P1 15:23 Michael McCarron scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% MIN –
3 P2 19:18 Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 12% chance +9% MIN –
4 P2 5:36 Tyson Foerster scored on a tip from 18 feetShooting · 9% chance +8% PHI –
5 P3 18:12 Denver Barkey scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% PHI –
6 P3 16:33 Cross checking on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
7 P3 14:22 Christian Dvorak’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +5% MIN –
8 P3 6:14 Porter Martone missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +7% MIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wild 50% · Flyers 50%

Final margin
Wild by 2
Luck in goals
2.0 for the Wild
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Wild 40% · Flyers 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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