Euro 2024 · final
The Euros, adjusted for luck.
Every match replayed 4,000 times from both teams’ own shots, each a goal at its chance: who deserved to win, and the table in the points each team’s play was worth.
Luckiest: Spain, +2.9 points against their play. Unluckiest: Czech Republic, −3.0.
Final: the results the replays liked least
- Spain 2–1 England
Spain beat England 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain go through 8 times in 10.
The groups, adjusted for luck
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Germany | 3 | +6 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2 |  Switzerland | 3 | +2 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 |  Hungary | 3 | −3 | 3 | 3.4 | −0.4 |
| 4 |  Scotland | 3 | −5 | 1 | 1.9 | −0.9 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1▲1 |  France | 3 | +1 | 5 | 6.0 | −1.0 |
| 2▲1 |  Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 3▼2 |  Austria | 3 | +2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 |  Poland | 3 | −3 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 3 | +2 | 6 | 6.3 | −0.3 |
| 2▲2 |  Czech Republic | 3 | −2 | 1 | 4.0 | −3.0 |
| 3▼1 |  Turkey | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 4▼1 |  Georgia | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
Every round, 2024
- Final Jul 14, 2024 · 1 match · every winner led the replays
- Semi-finals Jul 9, 2024 · 2 matches · biggest steal: Spain 2–1 France, 37% of replays
- Quarter-finals Jul 5, 2024 · 4 matches · biggest steal: England 1–1 Switzerland, 29% of replays
- Round of 16 Jun 29, 2024 · 8 matches · biggest steal: Austria 1–2 Turkey, 26% of replays
- Matchday 3 Jun 23, 2024 · 12 matches · biggest steal: Czech Republic 1–2 Turkey, 47% of replays
- Matchday 2 Jun 19, 2024 · 12 matches · every winner led the replays
- Matchday 1 Jun 14, 2024 · 12 matches · biggest steal: Belgium 0–1 Slovakia, 33% of replays
Other tournaments: 2020