Euro 2020 · final
The 2020 groups, adjusted for luck
Belgium have +3.5 points more than their play were worth, the luckiest team; Denmark −3.8, the unluckiest.
Replay points: each match replayed 4,000 times from both sides’ own shots, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. The tested result: after ten matches, replay points predict the rest of a season far better than the real table (how much better).
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Italy | 3 | +7 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 2▲1 |  Switzerland | 3 | −1 | 4 | 4.8 | −0.8 |
| 3▼1 |  Wales | 3 | +1 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 |  Turkey | 3 | −7 | 0 | 1.1 | −1.1 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  England | 3 | +2 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 |
| 2▲1 |  Czech Republic | 3 | +1 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
| 3▲1 |  Scotland | 3 | −4 | 1 | 4.1 | −3.1 |
| 4▼2 |  Croatia | 3 | +1 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 3 | +6 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 |  Austria | 3 | +1 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 3 | −1 | 3 | 3.6 | −0.6 |
| 4 |  North Macedonia | 3 | −6 | 0 | 1.3 | −1.3 |
Luck, pts: points minus replay points. xGD: expected goals for minus against over the group matches. Knockout ties aren’t in the groups; each one has its own page. Seasons: 2020 · 2024