Euro 2024 · final
The 2024 groups, adjusted for luck
Spain have +2.9 points more than their play were worth, the luckiest team; Czech Republic −3.0, the unluckiest.
Replay points: each match replayed 4,000 times from both sides’ own shots, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. The tested result: after ten matches, replay points predict the rest of a season far better than the real table (how much better).
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Germany | 3 | +6 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 2 |  Switzerland | 3 | +2 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 |  Hungary | 3 | −3 | 3 | 3.4 | −0.4 |
| 4 |  Scotland | 3 | −5 | 1 | 1.9 | −0.9 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1▲1 |  France | 3 | +1 | 5 | 6.0 | −1.0 |
| 2▲1 |  Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 3▼2 |  Austria | 3 | +2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 |  Poland | 3 | −3 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 3 | +2 | 6 | 6.3 | −0.3 |
| 2▲2 |  Czech Republic | 3 | −2 | 1 | 4.0 | −3.0 |
| 3▼1 |  Turkey | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 4▼1 |  Georgia | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
Luck, pts: points minus replay points. xGD: expected goals for minus against over the group matches. Knockout ties aren’t in the groups; each one has its own page. Seasons: 2020 · 2024