luckadjusted

Every game, adjusted for luck.

The scoreboard tells you who won. It doesn’t tell you how much of that was the bounces. So we replay every game 4,000 times, using the plays both teams actually ran, and count how often each side comes out on top. It’s a model, not a ruling. Everything that goes into it is on the methodology page.

NFL 2026 season · Week 9 Every game since 2019

Week 9, 2026: the replays back every winner

The games luck decided most, 14 of 15 played so far. All of Week 9 · every 2026 game

Luckiest so far

  1. Broncos7–2+3.9 wins
  2. Vikings6–1+2.0 wins
  3. Giants5–2–1+1.6 wins

Unluckiest so far

  1. Cowboys4–5−2.3 wins
  2. Rams5–4−2.0 wins
  3. Chargers0–8−1.7 wins

Adjusted standingsLuck rankings, after Week 9All 32 teamsReferees

College football 2026 season · Week 10 Every game since 2025

Week 10, 2026: 6 of 63 winners were behind in the replays

The games luck decided most. All of Week 10 · every 2026 game

Luckiest so far

  1. Buffalo6–3+2.0 wins
  2. Florida Atlantic6–3+1.9 wins
  3. Kentucky7–2+1.8 wins

Unluckiest so far

  1. Rice1–8−3.0 wins
  2. Temple2–7−2.5 wins
  3. Georgia Tech2–7−2.4 wins

Luck rankings, after Week 10Every 2026 upsetBy conferenceAll 138 FBS teams

NHL 2026-27 season · Week 6 Every game since 2025-26

Week 6, 2026-27: 10 of 51 winners were behind in the replays

The games luck decided most. Every game on the deserve-to-win meter

Luckiest so far

  1. Canadiens11–3–3, 25 pts+6.3 pts
  2. Bruins13–4–1, 27 pts+4.6 pts
  3. Oilers12–3–3, 27 pts+4.4 pts

Unluckiest so far

  1. Kings5–8–2, 12 pts−4.0 pts
  2. Flyers4–10–5, 13 pts−2.8 pts
  3. Canucks3–15–1, 7 pts−2.7 pts

Standings without luck, 2026-27Luck rankingsDeserve-to-win meterAll 32 teams

Soccer

Every match replayed 4,000 times. The current Premier League, La Liga and Bundesliga seasons and the 2026 World Cup are replayed from both teams’ goals (public-domain results data has no shots), earlier tournaments and seasons from every shot and its expected goals (StatsBomb’s open data): lucky or expected, who deserved to win, and who got lucky.

What the replays say about luck

Questions we put to every NFL game, each with its evidence on the page.

Luckiest playsLuckiest winsBiggest upsetsPower rankingsPredictionsWin probability calculator

How it works

A final score is part performance, part bounces. To pull the two apart, we take each team’s plays from a game, shuffle them into new drives and play the game again. 4,000 times. Kicks, fumbles and flags land at their normal rates, not where they actually landed.

If a team wins 70% of those replays, that’s roughly what its performance was worth. Whatever’s left between that and the real result, we call luck.

Does it hold up? On real rematches it picks the winner about as well as the betting line. Every test is public: the NFL method, what’s different for college and for hockey.