2026-27 regular season · November 2, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flames at Sharks, Nov 2, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flames beat the Sharks 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 34 points of win probability to the Flames.
The biggest swing (P1, 5:24 left): Adam Klapka scored on a wrist shot from 38 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Calgary Flames | 2 |
|---|---|
 San Jose Sharks | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Flames lucky · −58 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flames win 4, Sharks win 6.
- 1 CGY 3 SJS 0
- 2 CGY 5 SJS 3
- 3 CGY 4 SJS 3
- 4 CGY 3 SJS 2
- 5 CGY 2 SJS 3
- 6 CGY 1 SJS 2
- 7 CGY 2 SJS 4
- 8 CGY 1 SJS 3
- 9 CGY 2 SJS 5
- 10 CGY 1 SJS 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Sharks by 0.3, 55% to win. The Flames won by 1, a result we gave 45%. The final margin was 1.3 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flames win | 45.5% |
| Sharks win | 54.5% |
| Middle 50%: Flames by 2 to Sharks by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Flames by 4 to Sharks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Flames by 4 to Sharks by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 21.6% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 19.4% |
| Exactly Sharks by 3 | 13.2% |
| Exactly Sharks by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Flames by 3 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Nov 2, 3:43 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Flames win 42% of them, Sharks 58%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flames by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Flames by 2 | 8.8% |
| Flames by 1 | 21.8% |
| Sharks by 1 | 23.4% |
| Sharks by 2 | 12.4% |
| Sharks by 3+ | 22.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flames | 31 | 2 | 1.89 | +0.11 |
 Sharks | 50 | 1 | 2.71 | −1.71 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:00 | Interference on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 9:49 | Tripping on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 10:13 | High sticking on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 8:58 | Hooking on the Sharks (Will Smith): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 7:01 | Tripping on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CGY |
| P2 2:03 | Too many men on the ice on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SJS |
When it happened
Sharks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 5:24 | Adam Klapka scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% CGY | – |
| 2 | P2 8:58 | Hooking on the Sharks (Will Smith): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CGY | – |
| 3 | P2 7:01 | Tripping on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 2:03 | Too many men on the ice on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% SJS | – |
| 5 | P2 1:50 | Mason Marchment missed the net with a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 18% chance | +4% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 18:55 | Will Smith hit the left post with a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 18% chance | +5% CGY | – |
| 7 | P3 10:46 | William Stromgren scored on a bat shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance | +12% CGY | – |
| 8 | P3 8:03 | Sam Dickinson scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 14% chance | +11% SJS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flames 51% · Sharks 49%
- Final margin
- Flames by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Flames
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flames by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Flames 42% · Sharks 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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