luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · November 8, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Flames, Nov 8, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Flyers 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (OT): the Flames won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final (OT)

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Calgary Flames 4

November 8, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Our prediction before puck drop: Flames by 0.1

Luck index +48 Flames lucky · −48 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 4 CGY 0
  2. 2 PHI 3 CGY 0
  3. 3 PHI 4 CGY 2
  4. 4 PHI 3 CGY 2
  5. 5 PHI 1 CGY 0
  6. 6 PHI 0 CGY 1
  7. 7 PHI 3 CGY 4
  8. 8 PHI 1 CGY 3
  9. 9 PHI 2 CGY 5
  10. 10 PHI 0 CGY 4

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Flames by 0.1, 51% to win. The Flames won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Flyers win48.5%
Flames win51.5%
Middle 50%: Flyers by 2 to Flames by 250%
Middle 90%: Flyers by 4 to Flames by 490%
Middle 95%: Flyers by 4 to Flames by 595%
Exactly Flames by 121.1%
Exactly Flyers by 120.1%
Exactly Flames by 312.2%
Exactly Flyers by 311.1%
Exactly Flyers by 29.9%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Nov 8, 6:59 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 48% of them, Flames 52%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+16.3%
Flyers by 210.0%
Flyers by 121.5%
Flames by 124.4%
Flames by 210.6%
Flames by 3+17.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 1, without the luck Flames by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers4232.28+0.72
Flames4732.45+0.55

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 12:39 Tripping on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P2 6:15 Hooking on the Flames (Zayne Parekh): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P2 1:53 Tripping on the Flyers (Porter Martone): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 13:17 High sticking on the Flames (Aydar Suniev): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 5:24 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play +9% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 7:14 Denver Barkey scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% PHI –
2 P1 4:34 Zayne Parekh scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance +16% CGY –
3 P2 17:44 Noel Acciari scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% PHI –
4 P2 14:01 Zach Whitecloud scored on a wrist shot from 43 feetShooting · 2% chance +20% CGY –
5 P2 4:53 Owen Tippett scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 15% chance +20% PHI –
6 P3 11:33 Joel Farabee scored on a backhand shot from 3 feetShooting · 26% chance +23% CGY –
7 P3 5:24 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% CGY –
8 OT The Flames won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 47% · Flames 53%

Final margin
Flames by 1
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 48% · Flames 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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