2026-27 NHL season · Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026

NHL week 1: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canucks beat the Oilers 6–5 (OT) in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 16 games.

16 of 39 games replayed so far; the rest appear the morning after they’re played.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Canucks lucky 6

Oilers unlucky 5 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 25% of replays

Panthers unlucky 3

Sharks lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 36% of replays

Panthers 1

Hurricanes 0 Coin flip · Panthers win 43% of replays

Canadiens 3

Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 44% of replays

Sabres 3

Blue Jackets 6 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 48% of replays

Rangers 0

Bruins 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 50% of replays

Kings 4

Avalanche 8 Coin flip · Avalanche win 53% of replays

Lightning 1

Rangers 5 Coin flip · Rangers win 53% of replays

Islanders 1

Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 55% of replays

Oilers 9

Canucks 7 Coin flip · Oilers win 57% of replays

Blackhawks 2

Golden Knights 5 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 63% of replays

Wild 3

Predators 1 Replays agree · Wild win 65% of replays

Kraken 6

Flames 1 Replays agree · Kraken win 65% of replays

Blackhawks 0

Mammoth 6 Replays agree · Mammoth win 77% of replays

Flyers 2

Devils 3 Replays agree · Devils win 78% of replays

Penguins 7

Flyers 0 Replays agree · Penguins win 80% of replays

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#	Team	Game	Wins the replay	Luck index
1	Canucks	W 6–5 OT @ Oilers Sep 29, 2026	25%	+75
2	Sharks	W 4–3 OT vs Panthers Oct 1, 2026	36%	+64
3	Panthers	W 1–0 OT @ Hurricanes Sep 29, 2026	43%	+57
4	Canadiens	W 3–2 @ Maple Leafs Sep 29, 2026	44%	+56
5	Blue Jackets	W 6–3 vs Sabres Oct 1, 2026	48%	+52
6	Bruins	W 3–0 vs Rangers Sep 29, 2026	50%	+50
7	Avalanche	W 8–4 vs Kings Sep 30, 2026	53%	+47
8	Rangers	W 5–1 vs Lightning Oct 1, 2026	53%	+47
9	Maple Leafs	W 2–1 vs Islanders Sep 30, 2026	55%	+45
10	Oilers	W 9–7 @ Canucks Oct 1, 2026	57%	+43
11	Golden Knights	W 5–2 vs Blackhawks Sep 29, 2026	63%	+37
12	Wild	W 3–1 @ Predators Oct 1, 2026	65%	+35
13	Kraken	W 6–1 @ Flames Oct 1, 2026	65%	+35
14	Mammoth	W 6–0 vs Blackhawks Oct 1, 2026	77%	+23
15	Devils	W 3–2 OT vs Flyers Oct 1, 2026	78%	+22
16	Penguins	W 7–0 @ Flyers Sep 30, 2026	80%	+20
17	Flyers	L 0–7 vs Penguins Sep 30, 2026	20%	−20
18	Flyers	L 2–3 OT @ Devils Oct 1, 2026	22%	−22
19	Blackhawks	L 0–6 @ Mammoth Oct 1, 2026	23%	−23
20	Flames	L 1–6 vs Kraken Oct 1, 2026	35%	−35
21	Predators	L 1–3 vs Wild Oct 1, 2026	35%	−35
22	Blackhawks	L 2–5 @ Golden Knights Sep 29, 2026	37%	−37
23	Canucks	L 7–9 vs Oilers Oct 1, 2026	43%	−43
24	Islanders	L 1–2 @ Maple Leafs Sep 30, 2026	45%	−45
25	Lightning	L 1–5 @ Rangers Oct 1, 2026	47%	−47
26	Kings	L 4–8 @ Avalanche Sep 30, 2026	47%	−47
27	Rangers	L 0–3 @ Bruins Sep 29, 2026	50%	−50
28	Sabres	L 3–6 @ Blue Jackets Oct 1, 2026	52%	−52
29	Maple Leafs	L 2–3 vs Canadiens Sep 29, 2026	56%	−56
30	Hurricanes	L 0–1 OT vs Panthers Sep 29, 2026	57%	−57
31	Panthers	L 3–4 OT @ Sharks Oct 1, 2026	64%	−64
32	Oilers	L 5–6 OT vs Canucks Sep 29, 2026	75%	−75