luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 1, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Rangers, Oct 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Lightning 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P1, 14:26 left): Mika Zibanejad scored on a wrist shot from 23 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 1
New York Rangers 5

October 1, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +47 Rangers lucky · −47 Lightning

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 5, Rangers win 5.

  1. 1 TBL 5 NYR 2
  2. 2 TBL 5 NYR 2
  3. 3 TBL 3 NYR 1
  4. 4 TBL 3 NYR 2
  5. 5 TBL 3 NYR 2
  6. 6 TBL 6 NYR 7
  7. 7 TBL 4 NYR 5
  8. 8 TBL 2 NYR 4
  9. 9 TBL 1 NYR 4
  10. 10 TBL 0 NYR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Lightning win 47% of them, Rangers 53%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+16.2%
Lightning by 29.8%
Lightning by 121.1%
Rangers by 121.7%
Rangers by 211.3%
Rangers by 3+19.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 4, without the luck Rangers by 2.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning4012.75−1.75
Rangers3242.56+1.44

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:59 Holding on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P1 11:40 Holding on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P1 6:29 Holding on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P2 7:09 Hooking on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P3 19:35 Holding on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P3 16:26 Tripping on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power play +1% NYR
P3 10:56 Tripping on the Rangers (Adam Fox): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL
P3 8:59 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL
P3 0:57 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:59 Holding on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYR –
2 P1 14:26 Mika Zibanejad scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% NYR –
3 P1 11:40 Holding on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% TBL –
4 P1 9:09 Pavel Dorofeyev scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 17% chance +11% NYR –
5 P2 18:20 Eeli Tolvanen scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 4% chance +8% NYR –
6 P2 17:55 Pontus Holmberg’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 21% chancePontus Holmberg’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +3% NYR –
7 P2 12:01 Nikita Kucherov scored on a backhand shot from 15 feetShooting · 2% chance +8% TBL –
8 P2 3:59 Gabe Perreault scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 8% chance +6% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 8% · Rangers 92%

Final margin
Rangers by 4
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 47% · Rangers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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