2026-27 NHL season · after week 1
NHL standings 2026-27, adjusted for luck
The 2026-27 table so far, and the same games with every shot redrawn at its chance and overtime and the shootout replayed. Without that luck, one playoff place would go to a different team if the season ended today.
Points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss in overtime or the shootout. Coin-flip points: each game counted at the points the team averages when only the luck is replayed; it is the number that best predicts how a team does the rest of the season. Replay points: the replay with the same day’s form. Teams sorted by coin-flip points; the actual place is beside them. Regular season. Luck rankings
Atlantic Eastern
Metropolitan Eastern
| # | Team | GP | Record | Pts | Coin-flip pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rangers | 2 | 1–1–0 | 2 | 2.3 | −0.3 |
| 2 |  Penguins | 1 | 1–0–0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| 3 |  Devils | 1 | 1–0–0 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 |
| 4 |  Blue Jackets | 1 | 1–0–0 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 |  Hurricanes | 1 | 0–0–1 | 1 | 1.2 | −0.2 |
| 6 |  Islanders | 1 | 0–1–0 | 0 | 1 | −1.0 |
| 7 |  Flyers | 2 | 0–1–1 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 |
Central Western
| # | Team | GP | Record | Pts | Coin-flip pts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mammoth | 1 | 1–0–0 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 2 |  Wild | 1 | 1–0–0 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| 3 |  Avalanche | 1 | 1–0–0 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 |  Predators | 1 | 0–1–0 | 0 | 0.3 | −0.3 |
| 5 |  Blackhawks | 2 | 0–2–0 | 0 | 0.3 | −0.3 |
Shaded: in the playoffs on coin-flip points (the top three of each division and the two best other teams of each conference). Luck: points minus coin-flip points. Ties are broken the NHL’s way: fewer games played, regulation wins, regulation and overtime wins, wins, goal differential.
The playoff picture without luck
Eastern Conference. The same eight teams.
Western Conference. Kings would be in, Sharks out.
Questions
What are luck-adjusted NHL standings?
The 2026-27 standings with the luck taken out of every game: each shot’s result redrawn at its chance (finishing and goaltending beyond each player’s own record), overtime and the shootout replayed as the near coin flips they are, and everything else as played. Each game counts for the points the team gets on average when it is replayed that way. A team riding a hot goalie or a run of shootout wins drops; one that keeps losing games it outshot its opponent in climbs.
Is this the same as PDO?
Close, but per shot rather than per season: PDO adds shooting and save percentages and expects them to return to 100. Here each shot is valued at its own chance, the shooter’s and goalie’s records count as skill, and only part of the rest as luck. Tested on every season since 2018-19, it predicts the rest of a season better than PDO regression does (see the methodology).
Who would make the 2026-27 playoffs without luck?
Western Conference: Kings in place of Sharks.