Were the Avalanche lucky in 2025-26?

Yes: +4.0 points against what their play was worth, the 16th-luckiest of 32.

Where did the Avalanche’ luck come from?

Goaltending +20.3 goals, Shooting +0.8 goals, Overtime −1.9 goals, Shootout −2.0 goals, Empty-net goals −3.4 goals.

Central Division · Western Conference

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche went 55–16–11 (121 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 117.0 points. Luck added 4.0: the 16th-luckiest of 32. PDO 1.015; 56.8% of the expected goals in their games.

Central Division, 2025-26

#	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Without luck
1	Avalanche	82	55–16–11	121	117.0	1st
2	Stars	82	50–20–12	112	102.1	2nd
3	Wild	82	46–24–12	104	93.2	4th
4	Mammoth	82	43–33–6	92	93.7	3rd
5	Blues	82	37–33–12	86	83.8	6th
6	Predators	82	38–34–10	86	78.1	7th
7	Jets	82	35–35–12	82	86.7	5th
8	Blackhawks	82	29–39–14	72	69.3	8th

Every division, adjusted for luck

Where the luck came from, 2025-26

Goaltending +20.3

Shooting +0.8

Overtime −1.9

Shootout −2.0

Empty-net goals −3.4

Goals of margin luck added (right) or cost (left) over the season, each kind at its fitted luck share; overtime and shootout wins count two.

Season by season

Season	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Luck
2026-27	1–0–0	2	1.4	+0.6
2025-26	55–16–11	121	117.0	+4.0

Luckiest wins

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Mar 24, 2026	@ Penguins	W 6–2	30%	+70
Mar 22, 2026	@ Capitals	W 3–2	33%	+67
Nov 9, 2025	@ Canucks	W 5–4	39%	+61
Mar 6, 2026	@ Stars	W 5–4	43%	+57
Apr 4, 2026	@ Stars	W 2–0	44%	+56

Unluckiest losses

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Jan 21, 2026	vs Ducks	L 1–2	83%	−83
Nov 1, 2025	@ Sharks	L 2–3	74%	−74
Oct 23, 2025	vs Hurricanes	L 4–5	72%	−72
2025-26 conference finals, game 1	vs Golden Knights	L 2–4	72%	−72
Mar 16, 2026	vs Penguins	L 2–7	69%	−69

Division rivals

Blackhawks · Stars · Wild · Predators · Blues · Mammoth · Jets

Every NHL team · 2025-26 luck rankings · How the luck is measured