luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 22, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Avalanche at Capitals, Mar 22, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Capitals 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Capitals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Avalanche won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final (OT)

Colorado Avalanche 3
Washington Capitals 2

March 22, 2026 · Capital One Arena

Luck index +67 Avalanche very lucky · −67 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Avalanche win 3, Capitals win 7.

  1. 1 COL 6 WSH 3
  2. 2 COL 4 WSH 3
  3. 3 COL 2 WSH 1
  4. 4 COL 5 WSH 6
  5. 5 COL 4 WSH 5
  6. 6 COL 0 WSH 2
  7. 7 COL 3 WSH 5
  8. 8 COL 0 WSH 3
  9. 9 COL 2 WSH 5
  10. 10 COL 0 WSH 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Avalanche win 33% of them, Capitals 67%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Avalanche by 3+7.7%
Avalanche by 26.0%
Avalanche by 119.6%
Capitals by 121.5%
Capitals by 212.6%
Capitals by 3+32.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Avalanche by 1, without the luck Capitals by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Avalanche3421.82+0.18
Capitals3522.80−0.80

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:46 Holding on the Capitals (Cole Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 14:37 High sticking on the Avalanche (Nicolas Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 5:10 Slashing on the Avalanche (Parker Kelly): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 15:31 Hooking on the Capitals (Alex Ovechkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 3:43 High sticking on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P3 12:26 Tripping on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P3 6:03 Holding on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Avalanche were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:07 Justin Sourdif scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% WSH –
2 P3 18:55 Gabriel Landeskog scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance +22% COL –
3 P3 13:57 Nicolas Roy scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 16% chance +25% COL –
4 P3 8:16 Ryan Leonard’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +6% COL –
5 P3 6:03 Holding on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% WSH –
6 P3 5:43 Alex Ovechkin scored on a slap shot from 35 feetShooting · 10% chance +34% WSH –
7 P3 0:51 Josh Manson missed the net with a bat shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +6% WSH –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Avalanche won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% COL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Avalanche 32% · Capitals 68%

Final margin
Avalanche by 1
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Avalanche 33% · Capitals 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 24 2025-26 games · Avalanche · Capitals

More from week 24, 2025-26

Every game of week 24, 2025-26