luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 16, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Stars, Mar 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Stars 6–3, but the replays lean toward the Stars: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 12:40 left): Nate Schmidt scored on a snap shot from 45 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Mammoth. The biggest single swing (P3, 15:44 left): Jack McBain scored on a backhand shot from 13 feet.

Final

Utah Mammoth 6
Dallas Stars 3

March 16, 2026 · American Airlines Center

Luck index +73 Mammoth very lucky · −73 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 3, Stars win 7.

  1. 1 UTA 7 DAL 5
  2. 2 UTA 4 DAL 3
  3. 3 UTA 2 DAL 1
  4. 4 UTA 1 DAL 2
  5. 5 UTA 4 DAL 5
  6. 6 UTA 0 DAL 2
  7. 7 UTA 0 DAL 3
  8. 8 UTA 3 DAL 6
  9. 9 UTA 0 DAL 4
  10. 10 UTA 0 DAL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Mammoth win 27% of them, Stars 73%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+5.0%
Mammoth by 25.0%
Mammoth by 116.9%
Stars by 119.1%
Stars by 213.5%
Stars by 3+40.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 3, without the luck Stars by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth2751.59+3.41
Stars4133.63−0.63

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 3:33 Tripping on the Stars (Sam Steel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 18:43 Holding the stick on the Mammoth (John Marino): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 11:03 Tripping on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P3 16:56 Hooking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DAL
P3 10:33 Roughing on the Stars (Mavrik Bourque): 2 minutes on the power play +2% UTA
P3 5:31 Cross checking on the Stars (Michael Bunting): 2 minutes on the power play +2% UTA

When it happened

Stars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Stars were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:43 Sam Steel scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% DAL –
2 P1 7:49 Clayton Keller scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 2% chance +17% UTA –
3 P2 12:40 The game turned hereNate Schmidt scored on a snap shot from 45 feetShooting · 2% chance +20% UTA –
4 P2 10:50 Wyatt Johnston’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 38% chance +8% UTA –
5 P2 4:26 Wyatt Johnston scored on a tip from 23 feetShooting · 8% chance +22% DAL –
6 P3 16:56 Hooking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% DAL –
7 P3 15:44 Jack McBain scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance +26% UTA –
8 P3 11:55 Kailer Yamamoto scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 43% · Stars 57%

Final margin
Mammoth by 3
Luck in goals
3.4 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 27% · Stars 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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