luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 18, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Flames, Mar 18, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Blues 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (SO): the Flames won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final (SO)

St. Louis Blues 1
Calgary Flames 2

March 18, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +50 Flames lucky · −50 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 STL 5 CGY 2
  2. 2 STL 4 CGY 1
  3. 3 STL 4 CGY 2
  4. 4 STL 1 CGY 0
  5. 5 STL 1 CGY 0
  6. 6 STL 3 CGY 4
  7. 7 STL 2 CGY 3
  8. 8 STL 2 CGY 3
  9. 9 STL 0 CGY 2
  10. 10 STL 1 CGY 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Blues win 50% of them, Flames 50%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+16.1%
Blues by 210.2%
Blues by 123.7%
Flames by 125.5%
Flames by 29.7%
Flames by 3+14.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 1, without the luck Blues by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues3612.10−1.10
Flames3311.93−0.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:50 Hooking on the Blues (Pius Suter): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CGY
P2 15:31 Roughing on the Blues (Jake Neighbours): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P2 1:20 Slashing on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play +6% STL
P3 3:21 Abuse of officials on the Blues (Robert Thomas): 2 minutes on the power play +9% CGY
P3 2:55 Interference on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play +10% STL
OT 2:37 High sticking on the Blues (Pavel Buchnevich): 2 minutes on the power play +12% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:26 Connor Zary scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% CGY –
2 P2 16:13 Dylan Holloway scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 12% chance +17% STL –
3 P2 14:11 Victor Olofsson missed the net with a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 25% chance +5% STL –
4 P2 1:20 Slashing on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% STL –
5 P3 3:21 Abuse of officials on the Blues (Robert Thomas): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% CGY –
6 P3 2:55 Interference on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% STL –
7 SO The Flames won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% CGY –
8 OT 2:37 High sticking on the Blues (Pavel Buchnevich): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 53% · Flames 47%

Final margin
Flames by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Blues 50% · Flames 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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