luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 17, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Jets, Mar 17, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Jets 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Predators.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Predators won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final (SO)

Nashville Predators 4
Winnipeg Jets 3

March 17, 2026 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +77 Predators very lucky · −77 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 2, Jets win 8.

  1. 1 NSH 3 WPG 1
  2. 2 NSH 3 WPG 2
  3. 3 NSH 2 WPG 3
  4. 4 NSH 2 WPG 3
  5. 5 NSH 2 WPG 4
  6. 6 NSH 0 WPG 2
  7. 7 NSH 1 WPG 4
  8. 8 NSH 0 WPG 3
  9. 9 NSH 0 WPG 4
  10. 10 NSH 1 WPG 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Predators win 23% of them, Jets 77%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+3.6%
Predators by 24.5%
Predators by 114.9%
Jets by 117.6%
Jets by 211.2%
Jets by 3+48.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 1, without the luck Jets by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators3131.63+1.37
Jets5034.41−1.41

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:46 Tripping on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 4:45 Holding on the Predators (Ryan Ufko): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 15:01 Tripping on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P2 2:13 Tripping on the Predators (Jonathan Marchessault): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG
P3 18:06 Tripping on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 6:58 Erik Haula scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% NSH –
2 P1 0:40 Josh Morrissey scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 16% chance +16% WPG –
3 P2 14:51 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance +16% WPG –
4 P2 9:12 Filip Forsberg scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance +20% NSH –
5 P3 5:59 Matthew Wood scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 9% chance +34% NSH –
6 P3 1:34 Cole Perfetti’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +7% NSH –
7 P3 1:01 Jonathan Toews scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 12% chance +39% WPG –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Predators won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 11% · Jets 89%

Final margin
Predators by 1
Luck in goals
3.1 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Predators 23% · Jets 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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