luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 21, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Penguins, Mar 21, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Jets 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Penguins win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The biggest swing (SO): the Penguins won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final (SO)

Winnipeg Jets 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 5

March 21, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +54 Penguins lucky · −54 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Penguins win 5.

  1. 1 WPG 4 PIT 0
  2. 2 WPG 3 PIT 0
  3. 3 WPG 2 PIT 0
  4. 4 WPG 4 PIT 3
  5. 5 WPG 2 PIT 1
  6. 6 WPG 3 PIT 4
  7. 7 WPG 4 PIT 5
  8. 8 WPG 1 PIT 3
  9. 9 WPG 1 PIT 4
  10. 10 WPG 0 PIT 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 54% of them, Penguins 46%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+21.9%
Jets by 211.0%
Jets by 120.9%
Penguins by 121.5%
Penguins by 29.8%
Penguins by 3+14.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 1, without the luck Jets by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets4342.88+1.12
Penguins4042.24+1.76

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:10 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P2 14:16 High sticking on the Jets (Elias Salomonsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
OT 3:20 Slashing on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power play +12% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:54 Egor Chinakhov scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% PIT –
2 P2 13:50 Cole Koepke scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance +16% WPG –
3 P2 4:38 Erik Karlsson scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 3% chance +22% PIT –
4 P3 15:56 Neal Pionk scored on a wrist shot from 67 feetShooting · 1% chance +27% WPG –
5 P3 11:24 Brad Lambert scored on a wrist shot from 45 feetShooting · 3% chance +30% WPG –
6 P3 7:15 Erik Karlsson scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance +34% PIT –
7 SO The Penguins won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% PIT –
8 OT 3:20 Slashing on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 61% · Penguins 39%

Final margin
Penguins by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 54% · Penguins 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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